17.04.202612:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – April 17th

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Today, the pound, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar were traded using the Mean Reversion strategy. The yen was traded using the Momentum strategy.

In the absence of economic data during the U.S. session, traders' attention will be focused on speeches by Federal Reserve representatives: Mary Daly, Thomas Barkin, and Christopher Waller. Their comments could become a key factor in setting the tone for further market movement—especially amid a possible ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. However, as throughout the current week, the most likely trading catalyst will remain statements by Donald Trump regarding Middle East policy.

These two factors—the rhetoric of Fed officials and the foreign policy statements of the former U.S. president—form a complex but highly significant combination influencing trader sentiment. On one hand, remarks from Waller, Barkin, and Daly may provide insight into the central bank's current views on the economy and future monetary policy direction, which is critical for the dollar. On the other hand, any new information or hints from Trump related to geopolitical triggers could provoke sharp movements in the currency market.

In case of strong economic data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

Buying on a breakout above 1.1800 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1825 and 1.1850;
Selling on a breakout below 1.1775 may lead to a decline toward 1.1750 and 1.1735;

For GBP/USD:

Buying on a breakout above 1.3545 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3570 and 1.3595;
Selling on a breakout below 1.3510 may lead to a decline toward 1.3480 and 1.3450;

For USD/JPY:

Buying on a breakout above 159.15 may lead to dollar growth toward 159.40 and 159.84;
Selling on a breakout below 158.85 may lead to a sell-off toward 158.57 and 158.25;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1804 and a return below this level;
I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1780 and a return to this level;

For GBP/USD:

I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3548 and a return below this level;
I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3513 and a return to this level;

For AUD/USD:

I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7191 and a return below this level;
I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7165 and a return to this level;

For USD/CAD:

I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3688 and a return below this level;
I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3665 and a return to this level.

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