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Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around the psychological level of $4800. The U.S. dollar appears to have paused its recovery after hitting recent lows last Friday.
This factor is providing notable support for the commodity. However, rising oil prices are increasing concerns about inflationary pressure and contributing to a moderate rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which could limit any significant upside in the precious metal.
The conflict between the U.S. and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz is reducing hopes for new peace talks before the current truce expires on April 22. U.S. naval forces seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman as part of an ongoing blockade, which Tehran views as a violation of prior agreements. In response, Iran has once again closed the strategically important waterway, which had previously been temporarily reopened after a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah last Friday.
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue until a peace agreement between the two countries is signed.
The White House confirmed that U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance will lead a new delegation for a second round of talks aimed at preventing war with Iran. Iranian state media report that officials will not participate in negotiations as long as the U.S. blockade remains in place, reducing the likelihood of reaching a peace agreement before the current truce ends on April 22. This could also trigger a new wave of global risk-off trading and strengthen the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Nevertheless, supporters of further dollar strength remain cautious about opening new positions amid declining expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Instead of a sharp increase, the CME Group's FedWatch indicator shows roughly a 40% probability of a Fed rate cut by the end of the year. This is limiting significant dollar appreciation and supporting prices for the precious metal.
In the absence of strong buying activity in gold, caution is advised when opening positions, while waiting for a resumption of the recent upward trend that began from the March low.
At present, no major U.S. economic data releases are expected, leaving both the dollar and gold dependent on developments in the U.S.–Iran conflict.
From a technical perspective, gold is trading within a familiar range, with oscillators still mixed, indicating no clear directional bias. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index, while near neutral, remains in positive territory, confirming that bullish sentiment still dominates the market.
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