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As the new week begins, the GBP/USD pair has partially recovered from its decline, despite heightened tensions in the Middle East following the seizure of an Iranian vessel by the United States. At the same time, Tehran has threatened to halt negotiations in Pakistan.
The British pound is recovering as market participants reassess the risks of military conflict and the UK's weak macroeconomic conditions.
The escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran has taken center stage: over the weekend, Tehran demanded that Washington lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Against this backdrop, the pound sharply fell, opening trading near 1.3480, but later partially recovered amid a moderate weakening of the US dollar, which declined by approximately 0.05% on the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose sharply by nearly 3.90%. This increases global inflationary pressures amid concerns about supply disruptions and the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
In the US, no significant macroeconomic reports are expected. However, the market's attention is focused on the upcoming Senate hearings on April 21 regarding the nomination of Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump's suggested successor to Jerome Powell as head of the Federal Reserve.
In the UK, according to the results of two surveys, consumer activity has fallen to its lowest levels since mid-2023. According to S&P Global, the consumer sentiment index dropped from 44.1 to 42.3, reaching a 33-month low. At the same time, Deloitte recorded a decline in its quarterly confidence index to the lowest level since the third quarter of 2023.
The S&P survey also indicated that more than half of the respondents expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates.
Additional pressure on the pound comes from domestic political factors: The Sun reported on a meeting between Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, which intensified rumors of possible attempts to unseat Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Looking ahead, data from the UK labor market is expected on Tuesday. In the US, investors will be monitoring the four-week average ADP employment figures, retail sales data, and Senator Warren's speech.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair is trading above all significant moving averages, finding support at the 9-day EMA. For global further growth, bulls need to overcome the 1.3600 round level. Oscillators are positive, confirming the market's bullish advantage.
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