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Monday morning, it became known that Iran has officially withdrawn from participating in the second round of negotiations with the US regarding the resolution of the conflict in the Middle East. I trust this information, as it comes from official sources in Iran. The reason for the refusal for a new meeting with the American delegation, led by JD Vance, was the US's failure to lift the blockade of Iranian ports and the infamous Strait of Hormuz. Tehran indicated that the US maritime blockade should have been lifted in response to similar actions from Iran; however, this did not happen. As a result, Iran is extending its blockade, and negotiations with Washington have been canceled.
To be frank, I thought the negotiations would still take place, but they were supposed to happen on Saturday or Sunday, as Trump said. However, neither side managed to meet over the weekend, which immediately raises the question of a complete lack of arrangements for the talks. It feels as though Tehran and Washington are calling each other daily and exchanging phrases like, "Are we meeting today? No? Okay, see you tomorrow."
Nevertheless, the fact remains: the second round of negotiations can now also be considered a failure, and the situation in the Middle East has escalated again in recent days. The fact is that Trump promised on Sunday to devastate all of Iran's power plants if the agreement is not signed shortly. Something tells me that an agreement will not be signed anytime soon. The two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US officially expires on Wednesday. The deal could not be agreed upon, nor could the ceasefire be extended. Therefore, by Wednesday, the war in the Middle East may resume, and Trump may have to delay another tick mark on his "list of completed wars."
Is there any sense in expecting a new round of negotiations anytime soon? In my opinion, even if it happens, the outcome will be the same as if it did not take place. Iran continues to insist on its right to possess nuclear weapons and conduct nuclear research. Washington has issued the opposite ultimatum. Thus, even if I disregard all other points of the agreement, I do not see how the parties can reach an understanding on the main issue. Consequently, the probability of an agreement and lasting peace in the Middle East is reduced to minimal values, if not zero. Middle Eastern oil companies are looking for new oil and gas fields, particularly in Africa, without expecting a quick end to the conflict.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains in the bullish segment of the trend (as indicated in the lower image) and, in the short term, is in a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may take a more complex, extended form only if a stable and long-term ceasefire is established between Iran, the US, Israel, and ALL other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe that, from current positions, a new bearish wave set may be forming. Or at least a corrective wave.
The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I suspected. We now see a clear three-wave upward structure on the charts that may already be completed. If this is indeed the case, we should expect the formation of at least one descending wave (presumably wave d). The upward trend section may take on a five-wave form, but for this to happen, the conflict in the Middle East needs to cool down rather than reignite. Therefore, the base scenario for the coming days is a decline into the area of the 34th figure or slightly below. After that, everything will again depend on geopolitical factors.
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