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Today, gold (XAU/USD) is attempting to recover yesterday's losses, encountering resistance at the 90-day EMA, while the U.S. dollar is showing moderate weakness following the decision to temporarily extend the truce between the U.S. and Iran—one of the factors supporting the commodity. However, market participants remain concerned about ongoing disruptions in the functioning of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, expectations of a less dovish monetary policy stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve could limit further declines in the dollar and restrain gains in the precious metal.
On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intention to extend the truce with Iran indefinitely to create conditions for continued peace negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict. Meanwhile, the Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that Tehran had not initiated a request to extend the truce.
Moreover, signs of tension between the parties persist amid the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Trump confirmed his intention to maintain pressure without lifting restrictive measures. In turn, Iran insists on lifting the blockade as a precondition for resuming negotiations. This situation supports elevated geopolitical risks and helps preserve the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset.
Additional influence came from statements by Federal Reserve chair candidate Kevin Warsh, made during Senate hearings on Tuesday and interpreted by the market as moderately "hawkish." Warsh emphasized his independence from the White House and readiness to implement large-scale reforms, noting that he had made no promises to President Donald Trump regarding interest rate cuts.
At the same time, strong U.S. retail sales data reinforced confidence in the resilience of the economy and led to upward revisions of first-quarter GDP growth forecasts. This may limit pressure on the dollar and restrain the activity of "bears" betting on its weakening, calling for caution when opening positions aimed at further gold gains.
On Wednesday, no significant macroeconomic data releases are expected in the U.S., so the dollar's dynamics will be driven largely by geopolitical news. Any new signals regarding the U.S.-Iran conflict could increase volatility in financial markets and create additional trading opportunities for gold. However, the current fundamental backdrop suggests that a sustained uptrend in XAU/USD, seen in recent weeks, will require additional inflows of buying interest.
From a technical perspective, oscillators are already in negative territory but close to neutral, as prices remain above the 100- and 20-day SMAs. At the same time, recent failed attempts to break above the $4,800 level and insufficient momentum to overcome the psychological $4,900 level—where the 50-day SMA passes—call for caution among XAU/USD bulls.
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