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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair attempted to resume its downward movement after completing a prolonged upward wave, but neither bulls nor bears showed much willingness to trade. As a result, the new day began around the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1745. Today, a consolidation below 1.1745 would favor the U.S. dollar and a new attempt by bears to move toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1666. A consolidation above 1.1745 would allow for a return to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1824.
The wave structure on the hourly chart currently raises no concerns. The last completed upward wave broke through six previous highs, while the new downward wave has not even come close to the latest low. The two-week truce between Iran and the United States supported bulls, allowing them to form a strong upward wave. Thus, the trend remains bullish. In the near term, the geopolitical backdrop may deteriorate again, which could give bears more strength and confidence. However, to reverse the bullish trend, two downward waves or a break below the April 6 low will be required.
There were few significant events on Tuesday. Initially, reports suggested that negotiations between Iran and the United States would take place this week in Islamabad, but by evening Tehran once again signaled that it was not ready for high-level talks as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by the U.S. Thus, another day passed and another breakdown in negotiations that are supposed to lead to peace in the Middle East and ease the global energy crisis. Traders did not react to these renewed geopolitical "swings." Tehran and Washington are still unable to agree even on a face-to-face meeting, let alone a full peace agreement. Therefore, the market currently sees no reason to either buy or sell EUR/USD. Economic data released yesterday attracted little attention. The most notable were U.S. reports: retail sales rose by 1.7% month-on-month in March (vs. 1.4% expected), and the weekly change in employment according to ADP showed +54.75K, exceeding market expectations. These reports could have supported bears in the second half of the day.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1849, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and consolidated below the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1778. Thus, a decline may continue toward the next retracement level at 61.8% — 1.1706. A consolidation above 1.1778 would allow bulls to launch a new advance toward 1.1849. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 13,693 long positions and closed 19,866 short positions. Over the past seven weeks, the total advantage of bulls has disappeared. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 214,000, compared to 188,000 short positions. Two months ago, bulls among non-commercial traders held more than a twofold advantage.
Overall, in the long term, large players continue to show strong interest in the euro. Naturally, global developments—which have been plentiful in recent years—affect investor sentiment. At present, the market's focus remains on the Middle East, where the war has only been paused, not ended. Therefore, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy and economic data, and more on developments in Iran. The dollar may continue to benefit from this situation.
Economic calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On April 22, the economic calendar contains only one entry, which does not appear particularly significant. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday is likely to remain weak.
EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:
Selling opportunities were available upon a rebound from 1.1824 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1745. The target has been reached. New short positions may be considered upon a close below 1.1745, targeting 1.1666. I recommend buying on a rebound from 1.1745 with a target of 1.1824. Trading activity has been weak in recent days.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.2082–1.1410 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
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