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The wave situation on the hourly chart currently raises no concerns. The last completed upward wave broke through six previous peaks, while the new downward wave has not yet come close to the last low. A two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a strong upward wave. Thus, the trend is currently bullish. In the near term, the geopolitical backdrop may worsen again, which would give bears more strength and confidence. However, breaking the bullish trend would require two downward waves or a break below the April 6 low.
On Thursday, the economic backdrop made every effort to please traders, but they once again showed a lukewarm reaction to economic news. The European block of PMI data can be interpreted in different ways. For example, business activity indices in the services sectors of Germany and the EU fell to 46.9 and 47.4 points in April, respectively. It is worth noting that in recent years, the services sector has been the main driver supporting economic activity and the overall Eurozone economy. Industrial production has long been facing serious problems. At the same time, manufacturing PMI figures showed fairly solid readings, not worse than forecasts: 51.2 in Germany and 52.2 in the Eurozone. Therefore, it is difficult to label this data package as entirely negative. However, traders neither viewed it positively nor negatively and largely ignored the releases. The same applies to the U.S. PMI data and the report on initial jobless claims.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1849, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and consolidated below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1706. Thus, the downward movement may continue toward the next retracement level of 76.4% at 1.1617. A rebound from 1.1617 would favor the euro and some growth toward 1.1706 and 1.1778. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 13,693 long positions and closed 19,866 short positions. Over the past seven weeks, the bulls' overwhelming advantage has dissipated. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 214,000, while short positions amount to 188,000. Two months ago, the bulls' advantage among non-commercial traders was more than double.
Overall, in the long term, large players continue to show strong interest in the euro. However, global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict is paused but not resolved. Therefore, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend less on the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the ECB or on economic data, and more on developments related to the conflict with Iran. The dollar may continue to benefit from this situation.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On April 24, the economic calendar contains only two entries, neither of which is particularly significant. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday is likely to remain minimal.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling opportunities were available following a rebound from 1.1824 on the hourly chart and after consolidation below 1.1745. The current target of 1.1666 has almost been reached. New selling positions may be considered after a close below 1.1666, targeting 1.1568. Buying positions are advisable after a rebound from 1.1666, targeting 1.1745. Trader activity has been relatively low in recent days.
Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.2082 to 1.1410 on the hourly chart, and from 1.1474 to 1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
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