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The test of the price at 1.1739 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by 20 pips.
Recent news about Donald Trump's reaction to Iran's latest proposal regarding the nuclear program elicited a noticeable response in the currency market. The alleged dissatisfaction of the American president with Tehran's latest initiatives provoked a resurgence in demand for the US dollar, which investors traditionally view as a "safe haven" during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. Iran's proposal, which involved postponing discussions on its nuclear program until after the current war, was met with mixed reactions. Although Trump expressed skepticism about its essence, there was no outright and categorical rejection of the proposal, according to available data. In the context of the global economy and politics, such statements could escalate a new military conflict between the two countries.
Today, from a fundamental standpoint, it appears that the day will pass under the sign of relative calm. In particular, the projected unemployment figures in Spain, while important for assessing the state of the Spanish economy, are unlikely to make substantial corrections to the overall trends in the eurozone or to the direction of the European currency. Investors and market participants are likely to adopt a cautious position, closely monitoring news releases and possible comments from US and Iranian officials.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1718 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1744. At point 1.1744, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the euro can only be anticipated after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1702 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1718 and 1.1744 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once the 1.1702 level is reached (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1681, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today may return if the situation in the Middle East worsens. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1718 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1702 and 1.1681 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaForex lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaForex, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
