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The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, negotiations between Iran and the U.S. are "ongoing," and the situation is stagnating where it was a few weeks ago, while the market seems to have lost faith in Tehran and Washington's ability to reach a common understanding. I have repeatedly stated in my reviews that the probability of reaching an agreement is extremely low. There's no need to examine all the points of contention between America and Iran; we should focus solely on one issue: nuclear. Iran has been under sanctions from half the world's countries for 50 years, preventing it from freely selling its oil at market prices and in any volume. This is all because Tehran is not willing to abandon its nuclear developments and weapons. What is the likelihood that Iranian authorities will change their stance in negotiations with Trump?
In my view, it's zero. Moreover, the worst is already behind Iran. It has endured a month of active hostilities, responding blow for blow, showing the world that it is not a "punching bag," and other countries will not dictate how it should live. Currently, Iran holds the world hostage as energy prices have skyrocketed due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening recession and inflation in the global economy. Oil prices will continue to rise the longer the Strait remains closed.
Bloomberg analysts have calculated that oil prices will rise in proportion to the duration of the Hormuz blockade. If the Strait opens in early May, oil prices will remain in the $100-110 per barrel range, which is the most favorable but also the least likely scenario. The continuation of the blockade until early July poses a risk to oil prices reaching $160 per barrel. Bloomberg analysts are optimistic and expect the Strait to open in May. Personally, I am more pessimistic and doubt that the Strait will open even by July.
However, there is a "silver lining." Once the Strait opens, oil prices will steadily decline and could very well return to pre-war levels. Bloomberg analysts expect the average Brent price this year to be $74 per barrel. The only thing left is to lift the double blockade of the Strait.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains in an upward trend (bottom picture) and, in the short term, is in a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and could take on a more complex, extended form only if the geopolitical situation in the Middle East improves. Otherwise, from current positions, a new downward wave set may begin to form. We have seen the corrective wave; from here, everything will depend on market confidence in a successful outcome of negotiations.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD has, over time, become clearer, as I anticipated. We now see a clear three-wave upward structure in the charts, which may already be complete. If this is indeed the case, we can expect the formation of at least one downward wave (presumably d). The upward segment of the trend could take a five-wave form, but this requires the conflict in the Middle East to subside rather than reignite. Therefore, the baseline scenario for the coming days is a decline to the 34 figure or slightly lower. Again, everything will depend on geopolitical factors.
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