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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Friday and managed to (hold/settle) above the resistance level of 1.3611–1.3620. Unfortunately, the bulls had to retreat closer to the evening, as news came from the White House about the U.S. president rejecting Iran's peace proposal. As a result, the pair closed below the 61.8% corrective level at 1.3596, which allows for expectations of continued decline toward the nearest support level of 1.3526–1.3539. A new consolidation above the 1.3611–1.3620 level would allow for expectations of renewed growth toward the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.3700.
The wave structure remains "bullish." The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave broke the previous peak. Geopolitics provided bears with an almost complete advantage in the market for two months, after which the geopolitical backdrop supported bulls for three weeks. At the moment, the situation in the Middle East is contradictory but shifting toward escalation of the conflict and a prolonged confrontation between Iran and the United States. It will be difficult for bulls in the coming weeks.
The information background on Friday was quite weak and was represented only by the ISM Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. Even this index was quickly overshadowed by news related to Middle East geopolitics. I have already discussed this event in the EUR/USD article and recommend reading it for those who haven't. As for the dynamics of the currency pair this week, the market will focus on U.S. labor market and unemployment statistics, but they will only be available on Friday. During the rest of the week, traders will have to rely on less important reports. The only exception may be the ISM Services PMI. If Friday's data disappoints, bulls may begin to attack more actively. However, it should be remembered that geopolitical news reaches the market without warning, and its nature cannot be predicted in advance. Thus, regardless of U.S. labor market data, geopolitical news may override it. Last week, the Bank of England provided noticeable support to bulls, but this factor will not be enough to sustain them throughout the current week. New data is needed. Escalation in the Middle East is definitely not needed for the pound to rise. For the U.S. dollar to rise, on the contrary, escalation, a complete failure in negotiations, and strong labor market data are needed.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, which allows expectations of a full-fledged bullish trend. Consolidation above the Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.3540 allows for expectations of continued growth toward the 23.6% corrective level at 1.3664, but the chart picture on the hourly timeframe is currently clearer. I recommend paying closer attention to this chart. No emerging divergences are observed today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bearish over the last reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 3,509, while the number of Short positions increased by 5,091. The gap between Long and Short positions is now essentially: 59 thousand versus 120 thousand. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders have actively increased sales and reduced purchases, leading to a strong imbalance between Long and Short positions. In recent months, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical situation.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but the latest news suggests that a full ceasefire is still far off, and the war could resume at any moment. In this case, the advantage of the bears could become even stronger.
News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
On May 4, the economic calendar contains no notable events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.
GBP/USD forecast and trader advice:
Selling the pair is possible today upon a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.3596–1.3620 level, with targets at 1.3513–1.3539 and 1.3428–1.3437. Buying is possible today upon a close above the 1.3596–1.3620 level, with a target of 1.3700.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3866–1.3158 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.
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