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The GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the pound within imbalance 19 and began an upward movement last Thursday. Since then, prices have declined for the second consecutive day, driven by geopolitical events. Let me remind you that on Friday another attempt to "establish contact" between Tehran and Washington failed, and on Monday it was reported that Iran attacked a U.S. destroyer—an event that could lead to a retaliatory missile strike. Thus, we may be facing a tense start to the week and the month. Important U.S. labor market and unemployment reports are expected this week; however, if events in the Middle East continue with the same intensity, the market may ignore these reports altogether. At present, Federal Reserve policy and economic data are clearly not traders' top priorities. Therefore, for the pair to continue rising, Monday's events would need to turn out to be a misunderstanding without further consequences. Iran and the United States remain unable to agree on a peace plan that could lead to formal negotiations. A new escalation will not bring the two sides closer to an agreement.
There is little more to add regarding the news background at this time. The situation surrounding the resolution of the Middle East conflict has effectively stalled, and traders are uncertain about which direction events will take next. For now, bulls retain the upper hand, but if escalation intensifies, bears may launch their own offensive.
The pound's rise began with a "Three Drives pattern." Thus, traders received a bullish signal at the very start of the move, and the trend remains bullish. At present, the ceasefire in the Middle East is quite fragile, and the parties to the conflict have not yet decided whether to continue negotiations or resume hostilities. Negotiations may resume—but so might the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz remains under dual blockade, and Tehran and Washington cannot even agree on the next round of talks, let alone a comprehensive agreement to end the conflict. As of Monday, nothing has changed for two weeks—certainly not for the better. Both sides express willingness to reach a deal verbally, but in practice, no concrete steps are being taken.
The "Three Drives pattern," marked by a triangle on the chart, allowed bulls to take the initiative. Imbalance 18 provided traders with a buying opportunity, and imbalance 19 did so again. As a result, three bullish signals have formed within the current impulse, and a new bullish imbalance 20 was created on Friday. Bearish patterns and liquidity grabs are not causing significant concern for bulls. Only geopolitics could hinder further bullish advances in the coming days.
There was no significant economic news on Monday. Last week, the Bank of England supported bulls, but geopolitical developments on Friday and Monday have so far offset these gains. Imbalance 20 serves as a support zone, but it is not an impenetrable barrier.
In the United States, the overall fundamental backdrop still suggests that, in the long term, little can be expected from the dollar other than decline. Even the conflict between Iran and the United States does not change much. Geopolitics briefly restored the dollar's safe-haven appeal for about two months, but the broader outlook for the U.S. currency remains challenging. The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, the economy is approaching recession, and the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—does not plan to tighten monetary policy in 2026. Additionally, there have been several large-scale protests across the United States against Donald Trump, and a potential departure of Jerome Powell could further weaken the dollar (especially if the FOMC adopts a more dovish stance under Kevin Warsh). From an economic standpoint, I see no grounds for dollar strength.
News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
On May 5, the economic calendar includes three events, with the ISM index being the most notable. The impact of the news background on market sentiment may be felt in the second half of the day.
GBP/USD forecast and trader advice:
For the pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish. The "Three Drives pattern" signaled the beginning of the upward move, and since then three bullish patterns and two bullish signals have formed. Thus, under current conditions, despite geopolitical risks, I expect the pound to continue rising. However, it must be acknowledged that geopolitics could disrupt this scenario. I consider the 2026 high as the target for the pound. The reaction to imbalance 16 caused a corrective pullback, while the reaction to imbalance 19 provided traders with a new buying opportunity. At present, a reaction to imbalance 20 may occur, potentially offering another bullish signal.
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