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The British pound finds itself in an even better position than the euro. The start of the new week hasn't been ideal, but nothing too alarming has happened yet. Unfortunately, this may be the calm before the storm. At present, it is entirely unclear whether the attack by Iran on an American destroyer actually took place, as Washington denies any damage to its vessel. Meanwhile, an air alert has been declared in Dubai for the first time since the temporary ceasefire. The smoke is increasing without fire. Should a fire break out, demand for US currency may rise further, impacting the current wave pattern of the pound.
Last week, the Bank of England adopted a moderately "hawkish" position, much like the European Central Bank. The British central bank did not raise interest rates, but indicated that such a decision could become feasible at future meetings. The BoE recognizes that inflation is accelerating, and economic growth rates may slow due to potential policy tightening. However, inflation remains the BoE's top priority, so if inflation continues to rise, rates will need to be increased.
And inflation is likely to rise. We have only seen data for the first month of the oil conflict. In April, the Consumer Price Index could spike much higher than the current 3.3%. For the pound, this is also very good news, as the Federal Reserve intends to maintain the status quo throughout 2026. The new director, Kevin Warsh, along with Stephen Miran, may even advocate for a rate cut despite rising inflation. In fact, Miran votes for policy easing at every meeting.
The news background from the UK will be absent this week, making it much easier for the market. Analysis will largely focus on US geopolitical data and information. As I mentioned, the US labor market remains in a rather "cool" state, and it is very difficult to draw clear conclusions from the unemployment and payroll data for the first three months. Therefore, I would not be surprised if the April data turn out to be weak. What would make them strong if inflation in the US is accelerating, expenses are rising, and companies are being forced to cut production and service levels due to fuel shortages or high costs?
Based on all of the above, I believe the euro and the pound will gain this week. The only thing that could prevent the market from buying both instruments would be geopolitics. The situation in the Middle East has not yet flared up with renewed intensity, but it could if it turns out that the American destroyer has been significantly damaged or sunk. Therefore, Trump's next statement could be very important.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within the upward segment of the trend (bottom image) and, in the short term, is in a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may only take on a more complex, elongated form if the geopolitical background in the Middle East does not worsen this week. Otherwise, a new downward segment of the trend may begin from the current positions. We have seen the corrective wave, and I expect further increases in the instrument from current levels, targeting around the 19 figure.
The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I anticipated. Now we see a clear five-wave upward structure on the charts, which may be completed soon. If this is indeed the case, we can expect a corrective wave set to form. Therefore, the base scenario for the coming days is an increase into the 37 figure. Everything else will depend on geopolitical factors.
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