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It is also worth noting that the immigration policy, which Trump so passionately championed last year, is disapproved by a large majority of Americans. Fifty-four percent expressed their opposition. Regarding the overall management of immigration, 59% of Americans view it negatively. Reports indicate that support for Trump remains high within the Republican community but is rapidly declining among swing voters.
Let me remind you that in virtually every election (whether presidential or congressional), the battle is primarily for voters who are not staunchly aligned with either Democrats or Republicans. The approximate number of Democratic and Republican voters is known long before the elections; the main task of each party is to lure the swing voters to their side. Among so-called independent voters, Trump's approval rating has dropped to 25%. This means that virtually the entire "gray electorate" is ready to vote for Democrats.
Overall, analysts agree that the Republicans will struggle to maintain control of the House of Representatives. The situation for the Republican Party in the Senate is somewhat better, but even there, Trump's party may lose if fuel and consumer prices do not start to improve in the very near future. Trump's slogans about America bringing in hundreds of billions of dollars from oil and gas exports amid a global shortage are unlikely to please ordinary farmer John, who has no connection to those billions. However, farmer John is very sensitive to rising fuel prices, food costs, import tariffs, and cuts to medical and social programs.
Meanwhile, oil prices remain consistently high but not at their maximum potential. On Tuesday, oil has slightly declined, trading at $115- $116 per barrel (Brent spot prices) at the time of this writing. The highest price point in recent months has been $120.5. Therefore, any significant price decrease seems unlikely.
Based on all of the above, I believe it is still too early to even discuss the possibility of peace and the restoration of oil traffic to pre-war levels. Tehran and Washington cannot reach an agreement on any of the key issues that led to the conflict. However, the market is no longer rushing into the US dollar at every opportunity. The level of 1.1665 is holding back the EUR/USD instrument from declining, and the wave pattern suggests the formation of a new upward wave. If the euro resumes its rise, it is likely the British currency will follow suit.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (as shown in the lower image) and, in the short term, is in a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may only take on a more complex, elongated form if the geopolitical background in the Middle East does not worsen this week. Otherwise, a new downward segment of the trend may begin from the current positions. We have seen the corrective wave, and I expect further increases in the instrument from current levels, targeting around the 19 figure.
The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I anticipated. Now we see a clear five-wave upward structure on the charts that may be completed soon. If this is indeed the case, we can expect a corrective wave set to form. Therefore, the base scenario for the coming days is an increase in the area of the 37 figure. Everything else will depend on geopolitical factors.
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