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The GBP/USD currency pair also traded quite calmly on Tuesday; however, even on Monday, when another escalation in the Middle East occurred, the market did not show much eagerness to buy the US currency. This is not surprising. Iran attacked a US destroyer with two missiles, and Washington reported that this was not the case. Washington stated that six Iranian boats were sunk in the Persian Gulf, which Tehran immediately denied. Missiles launched from Iran toward the UAE, but it is unknown what target they hit. It seems that the conflict has flared up again, yet it appears that no one wants to fight, but provocations by the enemy must be responded to.
Meanwhile, the media continues to be filled with various types of insider information about the negotiations, about which nothing is officially known. Even the mere fact of negotiations between Iran and the US deserves considerable doubt and skepticism. According to rumors, Iran is ready to soften its nuclear energy demands, and Washington is prepared to take a similar step. However, it is worth reminding traders that Iran refused to hold negotiations with the US several times last week until America lifted the blockade of Iranian ports. There is not much space left in Iran's oil storage facilities. Once it runs out, production volumes will have to be reduced, and wells will have to be shut down. Therefore, time is working against Iran. Nevertheless, Tehran does not intend to restore the official negotiation process, and it is still unclear with whom Donald Trump is negotiating by phone.
We assume that some individual officials in the Iranian government may be willing to soften their demands and reach an agreement with the US. However, it is important to understand that there is the IRGC in Iran—a military organization that is unlikely to approve of such a decision. As a result, the country's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, or Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, may support dialogue with the US, while the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps oppose it. This is akin to Iran negotiating peace with the governor of New Jersey.
No matter how the negotiations and the new escalation of the conflict in the Middle East turn out, they are no longer as crucial to the currency market as they were two months ago. A paradoxical situation has developed in which traders are no longer fully prepared to respond to geopolitical factors, yet they are also not shifting their attention to the macroeconomic or fundamental background. Which is a pity. This week, a series of important reports will be published in the US that may outline the state of the American economy in the first quarter of 2026. Also, in just 10 days, Kevin Warsh will become the new chairman of the Federal Reserve and will surely give his first interview, in which he will outline the new monetary policy of the American central bank. The market needs to move away from geopolitics, which now resembles broken swings: they rock back and forth but constantly get stuck and break.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 99 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average." Thus, on Wednesday, May 6, we expect movement within a range limited by levels 1.3465 and 1.3663. The upper linear regression channel is directed downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone and formed a "bearish" divergence, signaling a downward correction that has already completed.
S1 – 1.3550
S2 – 1.3489
S3 – 1.3428
R1 – 1.3611
R2 – 1.3672
R3 – 1.3733
The GBP/USD currency pair continues its recovery after two "months of geopolitics." Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect the US currency to rise in 2026. Thus, long positions with a target of 1.3916 and above remain relevant when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, short positions with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3465 can be considered based on technical grounds. In recent weeks, the British currency has managed to recover, while the geopolitical factor has decreased its influence on the market.
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