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The EUR/CAD pair continues to rise confidently for the third consecutive day, trading near the 100-day SMA. This pair is showing steady upward momentum, as the euro maintains its strength against major rival currencies despite weaker activity in Germany's industrial sector in March.
According to data published Friday by Germany's Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), industrial production in the country, adjusted for seasonal factors, declined by 0.7% month-over-month. This result was worse than analysts' expectations for a 0.5% increase and followed a revised 0.5% decline in February. On an annual basis, industrial production fell by 2.8%, following a revised 0.2% decrease in February.
The euro is receiving support from hawkish comments by European Central Bank officials. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said on Thursday that the central bank is considering the possibility of raising interest rates as early as next month, while warning that households and businesses are beginning to express concern about the sharp rise in global energy prices. Another ECB Governing Council member, Piero Cipollone, emphasized on Wednesday that the likelihood of a rate hike has increased due to persistent inflationary pressures, despite the absence of data showing stronger wage demands from workers.
The EUR/CAD pair may continue its upward trend, as the commodity-sensitive Canadian dollar could weaken further amid declining oil prices. Canada is the largest exporter of crude oil to the United States, making its currency particularly sensitive to developments in the oil market.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are retreating after posting moderate gains yesterday.
The decline in oil prices comes amid easing tensions between the United States and Iran, reducing concerns about potential supply disruptions.
Last week, oil prices climbed following another escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran. On Thursday, the U.S. military reported retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets, focusing on sites allegedly linked to attacks on American forces.
From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved slightly into positive territory, indicating that bulls are beginning to gain strength. However, they will need to overcome at least the 100-day SMA to have a chance of reaching the 200-day SMA. Only after breaking above that level can it be said that the pair has regained the potential to restore its broader long-term uptrend.
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