08.05.202613:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on May 8th (U.S. Session)

Trade review and trading advice on the Japanese yen

The price test at 156.72 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the dollar. However, no significant decline in the pair followed.

In the coming hours, markets will shift full attention to key indicators that may determine the next direction of USD/JPY. These include the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for April and the unemployment rate. These figures are the main barometer of the U.S. labor market. A strong report — high job creation and falling unemployment — will strengthen the "hawkish" members of the Federal Reserve (of which there are already four), potentially delaying expected policy easing or even bringing the question of additional rate hikes back onto the table. Conversely, weak data will increase pressure on the regulator.

Additional context will be provided by University of Michigan reports: consumer sentiment and, more importantly, inflation expectations. If consumers build expectations of accelerating inflation into their long-term forecasts, this will be a worrying signal for the Fed.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy USD/JPY if the entry point at around 156.85 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a rise to 157.55 (thicker green line). Around 156.55, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point pullback). A rise in the pair today is possible only with strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 156.61 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. In this case, a move toward 156.85 and 157.55 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 156.61 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 156.06, where I will exit short positions and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure is expected to return today with weak U.S. data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 156.85 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 156.61 and 156.06 can be expected.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – expected Take Profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – expected Take Profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering trades, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones

Important note: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before important fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, from the outset, a losing strategy for intraday traders.