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Last Friday, despite positive job growth, the US nonfarm payrolls for April failed to trigger a meaningful rally in the US dollar. The key factor weighing on market sentiment remains uncertainty surrounding the upcoming change in leadership at the Federal Reserve and its potential impact on monetary policy, as well as the geopolitical situation worldwide. All this suggests the market is staying in a wait-and-see mode, looking for clearer signals.
The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, matching analysts' expectations, but that stability was driven by a drop in the labor force. That suggests not all households are actively seeking work, which could point to structural issues in the labor market despite the overall improvement in employment.
The report also showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 versus a forecast of 62,000. March was revised to +185,000. Positive contributors included healthcare (+37,000) and transportation and warehousing (+30,000). Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year?on?year, versus forecasts of +0.3% and +3.8%. Average hourly pay hit $37.41.
The slowdown in wage growth, both monthly and yearly, is an important signal for the Fed. It reinforces market expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to refrain from raising rates in the near term. Keeping policy rates unchanged is a central bank's priority amid the slowdown in Q1 economic growth.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions — especially in the Middle East — and fuzzy expectations about a possible US deal with Iran are having a larger impact on investor sentiment, overshadowing local economic data. Geopolitical risks will remain the main driver of global FX market dynamics.
EUR/USD technicals: buyers now need to take 1.1770 to target a test of 1.1795. From there, a move to 1.1825 is possible, though doing so without support from large players would be difficult. The far target is 1.1850. On a decline, I expect significant buying only around 1.1745. If no buyers appear there, it's preferable to wait for a new low at 1.1725 or open longs from 1.1700.
GBP/USD technicals: pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3600 to target 1.3655; breaking above that will be difficult, and the far target is 1.3685. On a drop, bears will try to seize control of 1.3560. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD to 1.3520 with a prospect of moving to 1.3500.
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