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Gold finds itself in a situation between a rock and a hard place, leading to its consolidation within a narrow trading range. On one hand, record highs of US stock indices unambiguously suggest that the armed conflict in the Middle East has come to an end. On the other hand, the rally in Brent and WTI prices, along with news from the region, indicates that this is far from the case. As a result, the precious metal oscillates back and forth, desperately trying to find clues.
There are rumors in the market that gold is no longer seen as a safe haven but as an asset that protects against macro risks. Stagflation is an unfavorable backdrop for XAU/USD, as in such a situation, central banks prefer to focus on raising rates. This leads to increased bond yields and strengthens currencies. The precious metal loses its advantage in the debasement trade, causing its price to decline.
If a combination of slowing economic growth and high inflation leads to a recession, gold could shine with renewed brilliance. According to UBS Investment Bank, the precious metal could set new record highs in 2026, closing at $5,600 per ounce due to macroeconomic uncertainty. This uncertainty boosts demand for diversification of investment portfolios and increases interest from both the public and private sectors.
The World Gold Council (WGC) estimates that in April, there was a capital inflow of 45 tons into gold-focused ETFs. Following an outflow of 84.3 tons in March, this is a positive sign for XAU/USD. The WGC notes that the reserves of specialized exchange-traded funds increased to 4,137 tons, the third-highest on record, following a record 4,176 tons set in February.
Gold enthusiasts need not worry about the 30 tons of net sales of bars by central banks in March, as it was driven by the activity of certain countries—Russia and Turkey. At the same time, the trend is toward purchases, with Poland, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and, of course, China leading the way. China has been increasing its reserves for 18 consecutive months. However, the share of gold in those reserves is a modest 15%. This figure has room to grow, which is setting a positive tone for XAU/USD.
Gold is preparing for the important release of the US April inflation data. Consumer prices are expected to rise to 3.7%, while core inflation is projected to reach 2.7%. Such dynamics in indicators, coupled with the stabilization of the US labor market, may prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, which would be bad news for the precious metal.
Technically, on the daily chart, gold is consolidating in the $4,650- $ 4,770 range per ounce. It makes sense to bet on the breakout of the trading channel and set pending orders to buy the precious metal at $4,770 and to sell at $4,650. The closing price will be of significant importance. There is a high probability of false breakouts, so it is essential to monitor how XAU/USD closes the trading day.
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