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12.05.202613:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on May 12th (US Session)

Relevancia 07:00 2026-05-13 UTC--4
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3558 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

The British pound fell sharply amid intensifying domestic political tensions clouding the UK's economic outlook. It became known that Prime Minister Keir Starmer, contrary to expectations, does not intend to resign without a determined fight for party leadership. Starmer firmly rejected any suggestions of his imminent resignation, calling attempts to remove him destabilizing and emphasizing that such political maneuvering would inevitably lead to serious economic consequences for the country. These remarks came amid growing pressure from opponents who view the government's recent actions as signs of weakness and indecision.

Next, investors and analysts will focus closely on the US Consumer Price Index data for April 2026. This key economic indicator, which tracks price changes across a broad range of goods and services, is one of the Federal Reserve's main benchmarks when making monetary policy decisions. The April report is expected to provide fresh signals regarding the pace of inflation growth in the US economy, which in turn could influence expectations for future interest rates.

In addition to the economic data release, market attention will also be focused on remarks from Federal Open Market Committee member Austan D. Goolsbee. FOMC members are key figures in shaping US monetary policy, and their public statements often contain important hints regarding the regulator's future actions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more heavily on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Exchange Rates 12.05.2026 analysis

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1

Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3552 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.3603 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3603, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point reversal move from the level. Pound growth today can only be expected after weak US data.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3519 price level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3552 and 1.3603 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1

I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below the 1.3519 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3464 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point reversal move from the level. Pressure on the pound will return today if US data comes in strong.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3552 price level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3519 and 1.3464 can then be expected.

Exchange Rates 12.05.2026 analysis

What's on the Chart

  • Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
  • Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area where profits can be manually locked in, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
  • Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
  • Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area where profits can be manually locked in, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
  • MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Desarrollado por un Jakub Novak
experto de análisis de InstaForex
© 2007-2026

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