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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday secured a position above the resistance level of 1.3454–1.3466, which allows expectations for continued growth toward the next resistance level at 1.3526–1.3539. A consolidation below the 1.3454–1.3466 level would favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3408.
The wave situation remains "bearish," as the bulls still lack sufficient positive geopolitical news for a full-scale advance. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet exceeded the previous high. Geopolitics has recently started to support the bulls, as a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States may soon be signed, while the ceasefire remains in place and could be extended indefinitely as the sides continue negotiations on a final truce.
The news background on Monday was practically nonexistent. Traders had little to focus on during the day. No new or important geopolitical reports emerged, except claims that Iran is allegedly ready to transfer all enriched uranium — but only to China. The accuracy of this report remains uncertain. It is also unclear how much uranium Iran would transfer to China and how much it would retain at secret facilities. Thus, while another seemingly encouraging report has appeared, pointing to the possibility of long-term peace in the Middle East, the market remains cautious toward any unverified information.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is no longer rushing to sign a deal with Iran. The US president is now concerned about making mistakes and is prepared to wait as long as necessary. It is still unknown when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Likewise, there is no clarity on when the memorandum of understanding will be signed. There is plenty of positive rhetoric, but virtually no concrete facts or events. The British pound is rising purely on trader enthusiasm. There were no economic reports on Monday, and none are expected on Tuesday either.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD advanced toward the resistance level at 1.3482–1.3514. A rebound from this zone would allow expectations for a reversal in favor of the US dollar and some decline. However, market movements this week will depend more on geopolitics than on technical analysis. Technical analysis can only be used as a supplementary tool. At the start of the week, geopolitical news flow was extremely limited, leaving trader activity near zero. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any indicators.
Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bearish again during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators fell by 11,530, while short positions increased by 9,718. The gap between long and short positions now effectively stands at 68,000 versus 132,000. Bears have dominated in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bearish advantage is now more than twofold.
I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the British pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had adjusted to expectations of a prolonged conflict, but recent news suggests that a ceasefire may still be achieved, although it is unlikely to be easy or quick.
The economic calendar for May 26 contains no notable entries. Therefore, the influence of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Tuesday will once again be absent.
Selling opportunities may emerge today if the pair closes below the 1.3454–1.3466 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. Buying opportunities were possible after a close above the 1.3454–1.3466 level, targeting 1.3526–1.3539. These positions may still be kept open today.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3158–1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866–1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.
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