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Gold has retreated today by 0.9% to approximately $4,527 per ounce, fully erasing yesterday's gains. The catalyst for this decline was the U.S. military strikes on missile launchers in Iran and on boats attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington characterized the attacks as defensive; however, the market interpreted them clearly as a signal that a real ceasefire is still far off.
The situation is further complicated by another front. Israel has announced a ramp-up of strikes against Hezbollah during the U.S.-Iran negotiations, while Tehran insists that a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon must be part of any final agreement. In other words, even if the parties reach an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz, it does not mean the end of the war in a broader sense.
This is particularly inconvenient for gold. The metal has lost about 14% since the beginning of the conflict and has failed to establish a sustainable recovery—each optimistic headline is followed by a new escalation, and the market has stopped responding to diplomatic signals with the same enthusiasm as before. As long as gold moves in tandem with stocks—up on news of negotiations and down on news of strikes—it does not fully serve its function as a safe-haven asset. Gold will have a chance to recover only after the conflict concludes.
It is worth noting that Brent crude oil has bounced back by approximately 2% today—the strikes raised the risk of prolonged supply disruptions and returned part of yesterday's geopolitical premium. This indicates that inflation risks remain, that interest rates remain high, and that the pressure on gold as a non-yielding asset persists. As long as negotiations proceed in "three steps forward, two steps back" mode, the metal will continue to trade sideways, waiting for the moment when the market finally receives something more tangible than yet another statement of progress.
Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4,546. This will allow targeting $4,607, above which breaking through will be quite problematic. The further target will be the area of $4,656. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will aim to take control at $4,481. If they succeed, a breakout of the range will deal a significant blow to bullish positions, pushing gold down to a low of $4,432 with the prospect of reaching $4,372.
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