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Yesterday, equity indices finished mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.61%, and the Nasdaq 100 strengthened by 1.19%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.23%. Global equity markets posted a sixth consecutive day of gains and hit fresh record highs. The MSCI All Country World index reached a record level, MSCI Asia added 0.9%, and futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 point to a further 0.1% gain.
Europe is also set to open higher. The main story this week is memory-chip makers. SK Hynix became the third Asian company to surpass $1 trillion in market capitalization, and its stock is up more than 1,000% over the past 12 months. South Korea's KOSPI has nearly doubled year-to-date and is the world's top-performing major index. In the US, Micron Technology jumped by 19%, joining the trillion-dollar club as well. Follow the link for more details.
The S&P 500 trades near an all-time high around 7,529, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to a record low of 44.80. These two indicators, which have historically moved together, are now diverging with unprecedented intensity, raising questions. Historically, such splits have been rare and usually short-lived.
The logic is simple: when the economy grows, corporate profits, real incomes, and consumer confidence tend to rise alongside equities. That relationship is broken today. The stock market is setting records on AI optimism and hopes for an Iran settlement, while the average US consumer reports feeling worse off than at any time on record, including during the 2020 pandemic and the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Follow the link for more details.
Markets often run ahead of themselves. As outgoing ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned, investors may be underestimating the risk of slowing growth caused by geopolitical, fiscal, and macro-financial developments. If so, expectations for a second and third act of ECB tightening are likely overdone. A market reassessment would weigh on EUR/USD, but would not prevent moves.
Friedrich Merz's economic advisory council has nearly halved its GDP forecast for Germany in 2026, from 0.9% to 0.5%, in line with government estimates. Inflation is expected to accelerate to 3%. That creates a clear stagflationary backdrop likely to split the ECB Governing Council: hawks will press for higher deposit rates to fight prices, while doves will warn about slowing growth. Follow the link for more details.
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