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The dollar continued to lose ground, while the euro, pound, and other risk assets recovered against the backdrop of yet another rumor about a peace agreement between the US and Iran.
The dollar quickly lost its advantage last Friday after information emerged that key negotiators from the US and Iran managed to reach a consensus and agree on preliminary terms for a peace deal. This news prompted an immediate reaction and outflow of capital from safe-haven assets, traditionally including the US currency.
However, despite the initial signs of promising developments, the market took a cautious position today. The main reason for this caution is the lack of official confirmation and, more importantly, the personal signature of Donald Trump on the agreements reached. Recent months show that statements and preliminary agreements, without final approval, can easily be revised or scrapped altogether. This creates significant uncertainty and does not allow traders to fully assess the long-term implications of a potential agreement.
Today's trading on the currency market promises to be eventful, especially in the first half of the day when the EUR/USD pair will be influenced by several important macroeconomic indicators. The main events that traders will monitor include the publication of unemployment data in the Eurozone and the updates to the PMI indices for the region's manufacturing sector. A negative scenario concerning the revision of these indicators downward could place significant pressure on the euro. If the actual figures are lower than expected, it would signal a slowdown in economic activity in the Eurozone. Such dynamics typically provoke a decline in the euro's exchange rate against other major world currencies, including the US dollar.
As for the pound, today's trading also promises to be quite dynamic. Traders will pay particular attention to the expected publication of the PMI index for the UK's manufacturing sector. According to preliminary forecasts, this key macroeconomic indicator is expected to show positive dynamics, opening significant prospects for further growth of the British pound. Positive data on the PMI index is traditionally perceived as a signal of strengthening in the manufacturing sector, which, in turn, is one of the pillars of the national economy. Improvement in manufacturing metrics indicates increased order volumes, higher production, and consequently, potential revival of consumer demand and creation of new jobs. This overall scenario is beneficial for the national currency, as it reflects the health and stability of the country's economy.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below the expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.
Buy on a breakout of 1.1665, which could lead to a rise in the euro to around 1.1678 and 1.1698;
Sell on a breakout of 1.1640, which could lead to a fall in the euro to around 1.1610 and 1.1579;
Buy on a breakout of 1.3480, which could lead to a rise in the pound to around 1.3510 and 1.3545;
Sell on a breakout of 1.3455, which could lead to a fall in the pound to around 1.3411 and 1.3370;
Buy on a breakout of 159.60, which could lead to a rise in the dollar to around 159.85 and 160.02;
Sell on a breakout of 159.40, which could lead to a drop in the dollar to around 159.15 and 158.80;
Look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1661 on a pullback below this level;
Look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1635 on a pullback to this level;
Look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3477 on a pullback below this level;
Look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3440 on a pullback to this level;
Look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7197 on a pullback below this level;
Look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7175 on a pullback to this level;
Look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3819 on a pullback below this level;
Look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3795 on a pullback to this level;
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