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Due to low volatility, the test of the levels I identified did not take place. As a result, I ended the day without any trades.
The upcoming U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI figures are expected to receive special attention. If the data turns out to be favorable, it will likely strengthen demand for the U.S. dollar, putting additional pressure on the Japanese yen and pushing the USD/JPY pair toward a new weekly high. Conversely, negative readings could trigger weakness in the U.S. currency.
Recently, despite sharp price increases, U.S. manufacturers have shown stable growth dynamics, passing costs on to consumers who have so far been able to absorb them. Rising manufacturing activity typically correlates with higher employment and expanding consumer spending, creating a positive effect on business sentiment. As PMI indices reflect the condition of the manufacturing sector, they are traditionally closely watched by market participants. Given these expectations, any deviation from forecasts could lead to volatility.
As noted above, if the ISM index comes in below expectations, it may be interpreted as a sign of slowing or even stagnation in the manufacturing sector. In such a scenario, traders are likely to adjust their positions in USD/JPY, although this is unlikely to result in a strong downward correction.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point around 159.51 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 159.84 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.84, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point reversal from that level. A rise in the pair today is more likely in the case of unfavorable developments regarding agreements and strong U.S. data. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun to rise from it.
I will also consider buying USD/JPY if the price tests 159.42 twice in a row while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a move toward 159.51 and 159.84 can be expected.
Sell Signal
I plan to sell USD/JPY after a move to 159.42 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key downward target is 159.15, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure may return today if weak data is released. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun to decline from it.
I will also consider selling USD/JPY if the price tests 159.51 twice in a row while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward 159.42 and 159.15 can be expected.
What is shown on the chart:
Important Note
Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with extreme caution. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, by definition, a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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