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The dollar reminded traders of its presence yesterday, but all rough patches and problematic moments were promptly resolved, restoring demand for risk assets.
News that Iran has suspended negotiations with the US due to violations of the ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza led to an increase in the US dollar. This was quite expected, as geopolitical tensions often stimulate demand for safer assets, traditionally including the dollar. However, as is often the case in financial markets, the situation was dynamic, and the initial reaction was soon tempered by a series of statements from US President Donald Trump. His comments, aimed at de-escalation and calls for diplomatic solutions, had a calming effect. As a result, after the initial spike, the dollar began to correct downward as uncertainty from the Middle East news subsided slightly.
The early part of today promises to be eventful for the Eurozone, as consumer price index (CPI) and core price data for May are set to be released. Market participants are closely monitoring these indicators, as they are key indicators of inflationary pressures in the region and significantly influence the European Central Bank's future monetary policy decisions. Forecasts suggest further growth in both overall CPI and its core component. This may indicate persistent inflationary pressures in the Eurozone, likely driven by ongoing supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices, and the influence of low base effects from previous periods. If the forecasts are confirmed, this trend may strengthen arguments for tighter policy from the ECB.
As for the pound, the focus of financial markets this morning will be on the UK, where a series of important macroeconomic indicators are expected to be published. Among them are the number of approved mortgage applications, the volume of net borrowing by individuals, and changes in the M4 money supply. This data will provide fresh insights into consumer demand, housing market activity, and overall liquidity in the economy. However, the central event of the day will undoubtedly be the speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. The central bank governor's speech is always a significant factor for markets as it can contain hints about future monetary policy, assessments of the current economic situation, and inflation prospects. Given the current situation in the Middle East and inflationary pressures, Andrew Bailey's words will be closely scrutinized for signals on possible actions by the BoE, including a potential interest rate hike at the next meeting.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act according to the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes out significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be the best approach.
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