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The market is almost fully concentrated on AI: investors have pushed all three major US indices to record highs for a fifth straight day, marking the longest run since February 2017. Tech names are up about 36% from March highs. The S&P 500 gained 16% in April–May, but most of that advance is concentrated in roughly a dozen issuers, generating FOMO even among professionals.
Chipmakers lead the charge. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rallied by 90% from this year's low. New S&P records were driven largely by Marvell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Marvell jumped after NVIDIA's CEO flagged its chances of joining the $1 trillion market-cap club, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise surprised with a strong Q1 print. Follow the link for more details.
The US dollar index is slightly softer in the early US trade ahead of services PMI and the ADP report but remains on track for a weekly gain. Renewed escalation in the Strait of Hormuz (US strikes on Qeshm island and IRGC retaliatory strikes on bases in Kuwait and Bahrain), together with intensified fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, has restored demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset and knocked back early hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough.
At the same time, hawkish labor readings (JOLTS) lifted the odds of a persistently tight Fed stance, strengthening the dollar via a repricing of interest rate expectations. In short, geopolitics and the labor market are the main drivers — investors are seeking safety and reassessing monetary policy prospects. Follow the link for more details.
Yesterday, indices reversed lower: S&P 500 -0.74%, Nasdaq 100 -0.89%, Dow Jones -1.21% (Nasdaq futures down about 0.5%). The rally stumbled on two shocks in one day — a weak guide from Broadcom that chilled the AI narrative, and renewed US-Iran clashes. MSCI Asia Pacific fell by 1.6%. South Korea's KOSPI lost 1.7%. Brent trades around $97/bbl (after a modest dip on news of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon), Bitcoin slipped below $62,000, and the semiconductor sector triggered profit?taking.
Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,547. Doing so would confirm upside and open the path to $7,574. Maintaining control above $7,607 would further strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers must defend $7,518. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,494 and open the way to $7,474. Follow the link for more details.
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