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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD first rebounded from the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3408 on Thursday and then from the resistance level of 1.3454–1.3466. As a result, the horizontal trading range has narrowed further to 1.3408–1.3466. Its width now stands at just 58 points. In my view, this sideways range best reflects the market's current willingness to trade. Consolidation above the 1.3454–1.3466 level would allow for further gains toward the 1.3526–1.3539 level, while consolidation below the 1.3408 level would signal a decline toward the support level of 1.3349–1.3355.
The wave structure remains bearish, as bulls still lack sufficiently positive geopolitical developments to launch a full-scale advance. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitical conditions remain highly uncertain at present, leaving neither bulls nor bears with a clear advantage. The bearish trend can be considered complete only after the May 25 peak is surpassed.
The news background on Thursday was neutral, uneventful, and offered little of interest. There is little to discuss regarding economic reports, as the only notable release during the day was the U.S. initial jobless claims report. Recently, the market has largely ignored far more significant data releases, so the claims report attracted little attention from traders. Market focus remains centered on the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and its implications for the global economy. The United States and Iran continue negotiations and maintain a ceasefire despite regularly exchanging attacks and threats. This week, Tehran and Washington carried out several strikes, while on Monday Israel effectively resumed military operations against Lebanon. As a result, the ceasefire between the United States and Iran appears highly unusual in practice. Both sides continue striking enemy positions, yet neither denies that the ceasefire remains in effect. Negotiations between Tehran and Washington are equally unusual. Very little official information has been released, yet Donald Trump remains confident that a deal could be reached as early as this weekend, while Tehran insists that no meaningful progress has been achieved. Against the backdrop of these developments—or the lack of them—traders have chosen to remain on the sidelines and wait for greater clarity.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the resistance level of 1.3482–1.3514, which allows traders to anticipate a decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327. However, price movements are likely to depend primarily on geopolitical developments rather than chart analysis in the near term. Technical analysis should be viewed only as a supplementary tool. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Sentiment among the Non-commercial category became slightly less bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 10,097, while the number of Short positions declined by 13,006. The gap between Long and Short positions now effectively stands at 58,000 versus 119,000. Bears have dominated in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bears' advantage currently exceeds a two-to-one ratio.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but rather on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to the expectation of a prolonged conflict, but recent developments suggest that a ceasefire may still be achieved, although the process is unlikely to be quick or easy.
News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
The June 5 economic calendar contains two events that I consider important for traders. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment is likely to be felt during the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Short positions were possible after a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. The first target has already been reached. Long positions may be considered today after a rebound from the 1.3408 level, targeting the 1.3454–1.3466 level. Traders may also consider buying the pair after a close above 1.3454–1.3466, with a target of 1.3526–1.3539.
Fibonacci grids are constructed using 1.3158–1.3655 on the hourly chart and 1.3866–1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.
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