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The price test at 1.3373 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound and missed the upward move.
In the near term, the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, as well as trade balance data and existing home sales figures, will be released. Although these macroeconomic reports may appear unrelated, together they form a broader picture of the state of the economy. Small business optimism is a leading indicator, reflecting entrepreneurs' confidence in future prospects, their willingness to invest, and their plans for expansion.
The trade balance reflects the competitiveness of U.S. goods and services in the global market, while existing home sales are a key indicator of consumer confidence and the financial system. Only strong readings across these indicators could reverse the current bullish momentum in GBP/USD.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Today, I plan to buy the pound when the price reaches the 1.3404 level (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.3426 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3426, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the level. Further upside in the pound is only possible if U.S. data comes out weak. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.
Pound buying is also considered if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3382, when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downwardpotential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.3404 and 1.3426 can be expected.
Sell Signal
I plan to sell the pound after a breakdown below 1.3382 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3355, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Downward pressure on the pound may return at any moment today. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving downward from it.
Pound selling is also considered in the case of two consecutive tests of 1.3404, when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3382 and 1.3355 can be expected.
Chart Explanation
Important Notice
Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, it is possible to lose the entire deposit very quickly, especially without proper risk management and when trading large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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