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Gold (XAU/USD) continues to decline toward its March low. Additional downward pressure is being generated by technical selling following the break below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Moreover, consolidation below the 200-day SMA reinforces the negative short-term outlook and increases the likelihood of further weakness. At the same time, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) has moved into negative territory and remains near the 28 level, indicating oversold conditions, while the MACD remains deeply in negative territory, confirming the dominance of bearish momentum.
Taken together, these factors leave gold vulnerable to further declines, with the potential for a retest of the March low near $4,100.
In the event of a corrective rebound, the nearest resistance level is located at $4,260, followed by the area of the 200-day EMA and the 200-day SMA. A break above the latter level, near $4,444, would ease the current downward pressure imposed by the descending channel and open the way for a move toward the psychological level of $4,500, followed by the 50-day SMA near $4,630.
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