11.06.202610:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold plunges amid US-Iran escalation

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After yesterday's heavy sell-off, gold is recovering slightly today, up about 0.6% to around $4,108 an ounce. Volatility remains unprecedented: within a single session, the metal first plunged 4% and then rebounded — all against the backdrop of reports that another round of US strikes on Iran had ended.

An important development came yesterday: Tehran announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels in response to US strikes. If implemented in full, the market would face a fundamentally new situation — not the partial blockade that has lasted four months, but a full cutoff of the waterway that in peacetime carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. That announcement triggered sharp moves across asset classes.

The paradox for gold remains. The metal is 22% below pre?war levels even though, by classic logic, it should serve as a safe haven. The reason is the same: the war has accelerated inflation, inflation pushes rates up, and higher rates weigh more heavily on a non-yielding metal than geopolitical fear supports it. The US CPI for May, released on Wednesday, reinforced this dynamic: a 4.2% year-on-year increase — the highest since early 2023 — outpacing wage growth.

A technical point important for traders: the recent drop below the 200-day moving average triggered additional algorithmic selling — a level large funds use when making positional decisions. In other words, the selling is driven not by a changed view on the metal but by the need for liquidity.

Silver is up 1% to $63.96. Platinum and palladium are also trading higher.

Technical outlook for gold

Buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,127. That would target $4,186, above which further breakthroughs would be rather difficult. The next, more distant target is the $4,249 area. On the downside, bears will try to take control below $4,062. If they succeed, a range breakout would deal a serious blow to bulls and push gold toward a low of $4,008 with a prospect of reaching $3,954.

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