11.06.202612:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Escalation in the Middle East fails to save gold

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Gold plunged sharply amid a worsening US-Iran confrontation. The metal, traditionally seen as a "safe haven," is losing value, while oil is rising on fears of supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Spot gold fell 3.5%, dropping to $4,111.95 an ounce — a low not seen since March 23.

The selling continued after new US strikes on Iranian targets on Tuesday. The strikes were a response to the downing of a US Army Apache helicopter.

President Donald Trump warned that Iran has "dragged out talks for too long" and will pay the price. In response, Tehran carried out rocket and drone attacks on US bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, heightening geopolitical tensions and supporting the rise in oil prices.

Nonetheless, the fall in gold reflects a reordering of market priorities — investors are increasingly focused on the risk of inflation, not only on geopolitical shocks.

Since the conflict began in late February, rising oil prices have revived expectations of possible monetary tightening. CME Group's FedWatch tool puts the probability of a US rate hike in December at 67% — a notable reversal from early-year expectations that had priced in easing.

"Markets desperately need positive news after the strong jobs report on Friday and this morning's threats from the president toward Tehran," independent metals trader Tai Wong told CNBC, commenting on the pressure on gold.

On Wednesday, the consumer price index offered the market some relief: core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in May, slowing from a 0.4% rise in April.

However, amid mounting energy-driven pressure, investors are turning their attention to the producer price index due Thursday. Some believe it could significantly influence expectations about the Fed's next steps and, accordingly, the outlook for both gold and oil.

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