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Oil prices plunged almost 5% today, with Brent dropping to $83 per barrel and WTI nearing $80. This occurred shortly after the US and Iran reached a temporary peace agreement, which is set to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the four-month war that has shaken global energy markets. Currently, about 600 ships are considering exiting the Persian Gulf — the first tangible sign of recovery.
Over the past weekend, Trump announced on social media that he would sanction the free opening of the strait — the signing ceremony is expected to take place on Friday in Switzerland, with Vice President Vance in attendance.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Garibabadi confirmed that an agreement has been reached; however, the text of the document will be published only after it is signed. The framework agreement extends the ceasefire for 60 days and lays the groundwork for negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program. Trump warned immediately that if no agreements are reached on the nuclear issue, military actions could resume.
The market's reaction was swift, but traders have adopted a cautious position. The opening of the strait is not an instant switch. First, mine clearance is necessary. Second, insurance companies may maintain high rates even after the formal opening. Third, restoring production at oil fields in the Persian Gulf that were halted during the conflict will take months due to technical and geological issues and infrastructure damage. Strategic and commercial oil reserves, which have been reduced at record rates, will also require recovery, creating additional demand that partially offsets the increase in supply.
As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $81.40. This will set the stage for targeting $86.67, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the $92.54 area. If oil prices fall, bears will attempt to take control at $74.85. If they succeed, breaking this range will deliver a significant blow to the bulls' positions and drive Oil down to a low of $67.77, with the potential to reach $59.90.
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