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Gold is trading around $4317 per ounce, maintaining much of yesterday's gains. The upward bounce was prompted by the US-Iran agreement and Trump's statement that the Strait of Hormuz could fully open as early as Friday. However, US allies are less optimistic about the pace of normalization in energy flows, which is holding the metal back from more decisive growth.
The paradox of gold in this war is well-known—and it persists even now. The metal has lost about 18% since the conflict began, despite conventional wisdom saying it should rise as a safe-haven asset. The logic remains the same as all along: high oil prices fueled inflation, inflation kept interest rates high, and high rates put more pressure on the non-yielding metal than geopolitical fears supported it.
Now, this chain is starting to unwind in the opposite direction: WTI crude has dropped to around $81, and Brent is around $83. If the opening of the strait leads to a sustained decline in oil prices, inflation expectations will weaken, pressure on rates will ease, and gold will have room to recover.
I would like to note that many companies estimate that gold and silver remain undervalued compared to their reactions during past Middle Eastern conflicts. If the peace agreement proves to be durable, traders are expected to reduce sales and return to viewing the metal as an alternative to US assets and the dollar. This is a long-term bullish thesis—and it works regardless of whether the Strait of Hormuz opens.
In the short term, everything will be determined by the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Traders still lean towards a rate hike by the end of the year, and the tone of Kevin Warsh's first press conference will dictate how much these expectations shift. A tough signal will renew pressure on gold. However, if Warsh indicates that falling oil prices change the inflation outlook, the metal will gain additional momentum.
Silver is trading at around $69.87 after a 2.9% rise the previous day. Platinum and palladium have decreased slightly.
Regarding the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4372. This will allow them to target $4432, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the $4481 area. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at $4304. If they succeed, breaking this range will deliver a significant blow to bullish positions and push gold down to a low of $4249, potentially reaching $4186.
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