16.06.202613:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: More details emerge, clearer disagreements become

While the White House is actively advancing the Iran deal, the euro, the pound, and other risk assets are losing ground against the dollar because the more details that surface, the clearer it becomes that the parties still view the agreement differently.

The fact that the memorandum of understanding text has not yet been published is putting additional pressure on markets already. The official signing has been postponed until Friday, June 19. At the G7 summit in France the president said the document might become available somewhere after Friday.

The principal contradiction concerns payment for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump insists: "It will be open and free." Iran's Fars news agency reports otherwise: Tehran agreed to free passage only for 60 days, after which it intends to introduce fees. This is a material divergence—it was precisely attempting to monetize transit through the strait in the middle of a war that unnerved markets in recent weeks. If Iran does try to impose charges after two months, the entire negotiating progress would be threatened.

The Lebanon track remains another source of uncertainty. Israel continues operations against Hezbollah, and the US side has stated that withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon is not a condition of the deal. Trump commented, "Hezbollah, we have to have a little talk with them." For markets this means that one of the key points of tension that Iran insists on remains unresolved.

The White House, meanwhile, is circulating talking points to allies emphasizing Trump's readiness to resume strikes if Iran fails to meet conditions.

All this has reduced market optimism despite oil trading down for a fourth consecutive day, rising US equity indexes, and firmer bonds. Oil shippers transiting the Strait of Hormuz are taking a more cautious stance: shipping companies say they need greater clarity before routing vessels through the strait. Trump's words have been dismissed in the sector before—without publication of a concrete text with clear security guarantees, a full restoration of traffic remains a matter of weeks, not days.

Against this backdrop, the currency market responded quickly, reducing demand for risk assets and strengthening the dollar across the board.

A technical outlook for EUR/USD suggests that buyers should consider taking 1.1600. That would allow a test of 1.1620. From there, the pair could reach 1.1645, although moving beyond that level without support from major participants would be difficult. On the downside, only significant buying interest around 1.1565 is likely to prompt major action from large players. If that support is absent, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1535 or to consider long entries from 1.1505.

As for GBP/USD, buyers of the pound sterling should clear the nearest resistance at 1.3415 to target 1.3440. Advancing above that level may prove difficult, with a further target at 1.3460. If the pair falls, bears will seek to seize control at 1.3385. A decisive break below 1.3385 will likely deal serious damage to bull positions and could push GBP/USD toward 1.3360, with downside extending to 1.3330.