18.06.202606:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on June 18? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday. In the UK, the unemployment rate and average wages will be released, while the U.S. will announce initial claims for unemployment benefits. We consider this data to be secondary and would like to note that the market essentially ignored yesterday's UK inflation report, which will have a direct impact on the Bank of England's monetary policy decision today. Throughout the day, the market will focus on the results of the FOMC and BoE meetings.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the key fundamental events on Thursday, the meeting of the British central bank deserves particular attention. Of course, the market is more concerned with the Federal Reserve, which yesterday announced its readiness to raise the key interest rate one or two times by the end of the year. However, the BoE could also surprise today. Traders expect two of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members to speak in favor of tightening monetary policy. If the actual number is higher or lower than this, the market will draw conclusions about the Bank's stance as more "hawkish" or more "dovish". Thus, movements in the British pound today will depend on the outcomes of the committee officials' votes.

The geopolitical backdrop remains relatively "conditionally positive." Iran and the U.S. are set to sign a framework agreement on Friday; however, too many important questions remain unresolved, particularly regarding the "nuclear issue," which is not even mentioned in the current text of the agreement. This is precisely the problem that started the war and could lead to its resumption at any moment. Thus, the market's optimism about the Iran-U.S. ceasefire is quite restrained, and the market is not rushing to sell the dollar.

General Conclusions:

On the fourth trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade quite volatile as the results of the BoE meeting will be announced today, and the market may continue to react to the Fed's "hawkish" stance. The euro can be traded from the 1.1527-1.1531 area, while the British pound can be traded from the 1.3319-1.3331 area. Geopolitics remains a key factor influencing the currency market, but today, decisions by central banks in the U.S. and the UK will take center stage.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.