23.06.202612:41 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Price Analysis and Forecast: Weak UK PMI Data Adds Pressure on the Pound

Relevancia 06:00 2026-06-24 UTC--4

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GBP/USD continues to post moderate intraday losses, reaching a fresh daily low near 1.3210. Moreover, the current fundamental backdrop appears to favor the bears, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside.

The British pound is facing a new wave of negative factors amid the deepening political crisis in the UK following Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation under pressure from within the Labour Party. Additional pressure on the pound comes from disappointing preliminary UK PMI data, which, combined with sustained demand for the U.S. dollar, is weighing on GBP/USD sentiment.

In fact, the latest monthly survey by S&P Global showed that UK business activity contracted for a second consecutive month. The Composite PMI fell from 49.7 to 49.4 in June, marking its lowest level in 14 months. The decline was driven primarily by weaker activity in the services sector, where the Services PMI dropped to 48.7, its lowest reading in 41 months, despite the Manufacturing PMI rising to 53.6, its highest level in nearly two years.

These figures followed weaker-than-expected UK consumer inflation data released last week, prompting traders to scale back expectations for further interest rate increases by the Bank of England.

In addition, the peace agreement between the United States and Iran has reduced concerns about a potential energy shock, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England may keep interest rates unchanged in the coming months. This is exerting further pressure on the pound sterling and supports a bearish outlook for GBP/USD.

Furthermore, the Bank of England's monetary policy stance differs significantly from the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals that additional interest rate increases may be needed this year if inflation remains elevated. This divergence, combined with ongoing uncertainty regarding the durability of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, has lifted the U.S. dollar to new highs not seen since May 2025, further reinforcing the negative short-term outlook for GBP/USD.

From a technical perspective, the pair remains under pressure, trading below key moving averages. In addition, oscillators remain in negative territory, confirming that bears maintain control of the market. Initial resistance is located at 1.3275, ahead of the psychological 1.3300 level. Support is found in the 1.3200 psychological area, followed by the June low near 1.3159.

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