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Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to correct after significant declines; however, demand remains low, making a "bullish" trend in the near future almost unattainable. Over the past week, both cryptocurrencies have gradually declined, suggesting a likely resumption of the downward trend without a prolonged correction. Thus, Bitcoin and Ethereum can only expect a flat movement at this time. Many experts point out that the "bottom" of the market may be in the $40,000 to $55,000 range, but in our view, even this area may not be the final stop. Many traders are accustomed to believing that Bitcoin will rise in price forever, or simply to taking cues from companies like Strategy. However, we believe that Bitcoin could freely drop to the levels of 2022, regardless of the promises made by Kiyosaki, Wood, and Saylor. It is important to remember that Bitcoin is not physical gold or real assets backed by businesses and real estate. There are no technical signs indicating the end of the "bearish" trend for either Ethereum or Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Grayscale experts reported that Bitcoin could catch up with the U.S. stock market if the Fed abandons its plans to tighten monetary policy. The company noted that since the start of the war in Iran, the U.S. stock market has risen by 9%, while Bitcoin has lost 1% of its value. According to the company's analysts, the stock market received support from shares of companies involved in artificial intelligence development, while Bitcoin and gold faced pressure amid expectations of an increase in the Fed's key interest rate. The company also mentioned that they do not believe the Fed will tighten policy in 2026. Bitcoin and gold are among a class of assets that do not yield interest income, making bonds and bank deposits more attractive to investors when interest rates rise.
We can say that the tightening of Federal Reserve monetary policy is not yet predetermined, but even if the central bank indeed abandons its plans to raise rates, this may not lead to a new surge in "digital gold." A few months ago, the Fed considered a scenario of one policy easing by the end of the year and maintained a "dovish" tone. At that time, Bitcoin was also in a downward trend. Regarding the AI sector and the influx of capital into it, Bitcoin is currently perceived as a "plaything for investors" rather than a stable asset with great future potential. With the emergence of artificial intelligence, the market immediately rushed to invest in it, anticipating macro profits at Bitcoin's expense.
Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend and corrections against it. We continue to expect a decline with a target of $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of the beginning of an upward trend. The last bearish FVG pattern was formed in the range of $68,000 - $70,700, making this area a point of interest for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, the cryptocurrency may experience a near-term upward correction; however, bearish patterns remain more attractive. As of today, a new sell signal may form within the $62,700 - $63,635 range.
On the daily timeframe, the downward trend that began last August continues. The key sell pattern remains the bearish Order Block on the weekly timeframe. We do not believe that the current downward trend is over, as there are no signs of its completion for either Bitcoin or Ethereum. In the near future, Ethereum may resume its decline, targeting $1,391 and $788 if Bitcoin reacts to the bearish FVG on the daily timeframe. On the 4-hour timeframe, it is acceptable to consider small long trades based on bullish patterns, but it is also important not to ignore bearish patterns. In the coming hours, Ethereum (like Bitcoin) may react to the bearish FVG that was formed yesterday.
CHOCH – Change of Character in Trend Structure.
Liquidity – Stop Loss, pending orders, which market makers use to build their positions.
FVG – Fair Value Gap. Price quickly moves through such areas, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, prices tend to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.
IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such an area, the price does not react and impulsively breaks through, then tests from the opposite side.
OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position to collect liquidity to form their position in the opposite direction.
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