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GBP/USD continues its overall downward movement. On Monday, bulls saw a glimmer of hope when the pound advanced following reports that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer had resigned. However, Monday quickly gave way to Tuesday, and the market returned to reality. That reality is that the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen regardless of circumstances.
The Federal Reserve did adopt a surprisingly hawkish stance a week ago, but an entire week has passed since that meeting. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has ended, the Strait of Hormuz remains open, and oil prices have already returned to pre-conflict levels. None of these factors has had any meaningful impact on traders or on the dollar. The market finds itself in a difficult situation: on the one hand, there is a strong local trend; on the other hand, there is no clear understanding of why that trend exists.
Yesterday, a sell signal was formed, but it appeared only because of the pound's rise on Monday—in other words, almost by chance. Nevertheless, I remain very cautious about the current bearish advance because no one has yet provided a convincing explanation for the dollar's strength. The market continues to build long positions in the U.S. currency, and there is nothing preventing traders from doing so. However, it is much harder to explain why market participants continue to sell GBP/USD day after day. Regardless, there are still no signs that the bearish campaign is nearing completion, and a new sell signal emerged yesterday.
The U.S. dollar tends to perform better during periods of geopolitical tension than either the euro or the pound. Therefore, both European currencies may still receive support as risk appetite improves. At present, the market remains cautious regarding the agreement between Iran and the United States. However, it can now be said that the war has officially ended—or at least has moved toward a resolution. The Fed triggered a strong rally in the dollar, but I still do not see what is allowing bears to continue pressing their advantage. In my view, the broader trend remains bullish despite the substantial declines seen in the pair this year, which have lacked strong fundamental justification.
The technical picture is currently as follows. Last week, a new bearish imbalance 21 was formed. However, at present, the pound can only "dream" of reaching imbalance 21. Instead, price reacted to the closer imbalance 22. Still, I would emphasize that a move lacking solid fundamental support can end at any moment—and often unexpectedly. It is also worth noting the proximity of the March 31 swing point, where liquidity may be collected. If that occurs, bulls could launch a counteroffensive based on a combination of factors. For now, however, the short-term chart structure remains bearish.
Thursday's economic backdrop allowed bears to maintain their advance, as the most important report of the day—U.S. GDP—came in stronger than expected and supported the dollar. Paradoxically, however, it was the bulls, not the bears, who were active during the U.S. session. Once again, traders have been reminded that the recent decline in GBP/USD has been somewhat unusual in nature.
The broader fundamental backdrop still leads me to expect weakness in the U.S. dollar over the long term. The conflict between Iran and the United States changed nothing in that regard. Nor does the possibility of a Fed rate hike in 2026. Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded the market of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the conflict has ended—or is at least moving toward a resolution.
The Fed intends to raise interest rates in 2026, and that is certainly a positive factor for the dollar. However, tighter monetary policy would also slow the U.S. economy. Moreover, it is unlikely that Donald Trump appointed Kevin Warsh to lead the FOMC with the goal of implementing aggressive rate hikes. In my view, if policy tightening does occur, it will likely be a temporary measure aimed at bringing inflation down quickly, after which the Federal Reserve will return to a more accommodative stance.
Therefore, I believe that any appreciation of the U.S. dollar is temporary in nature. Nevertheless, traders should not ignore the technical picture, which remains bearish.
News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
The economic calendar for June 26 contains only one secondary release. As a result, the impact of economic data on market sentiment on Friday is likely to be minimal or absent altogether.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
For the pound, the long-term picture remains bullish, while the reaction to bearish imbalance 22 triggered another bearish advance. As a result, a new sell signal was generated this week. Given that GBP/USD has traded within a broad sideways range for nearly a year on the weekly chart, the current decline can be explained primarily by technical factors.
Within a range-bound market, price movements can be highly unpredictable. The recent strength of the dollar remains difficult to justify fundamentally, suggesting that we are dealing with a technical move inside a horizontal trading range. Following the sell signal formed within imbalance 22, the pound may decline toward 1.3007, the level that would invalidate the broader bullish trend.
At present, the main factor supporting the bulls is the proximity of the 1.3158 low, where liquidity may be collected before the market attempts a reversal.
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