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Last Friday, US equity indices closed lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.05%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.24%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.09%.
Despite that, markets began the new week and ended the quarter on an optimistic note after another reversal in the Iran story. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose at least 0.7% today after Axios reported an agreement between the US and Iran to halt strikes and meet this week in Qatar to resume talks over the Strait of Hormuz. That is a sharp change in tone after a fraught weekend. From Thursday the conflict escalated markedly when Iran struck a container ship, a tanker carrying Qatari oil, and military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, provoking US retaliatory strikes.
The oil reaction is telling and signals a shift in market psychology. Brent gave back early gains and is trading roughly unchanged near $72 per barrel, despite the severity of the weekend escalation. A few weeks ago, a similar exchange of strikes would have sent oil sharply higher; now the market treats it as transitory.
Meanwhile, money is rotating out of major chipmakers into a wider set of companies. The MSCI All Country World Index lost 2.1% last week largely because of semiconductor sell-offs, while the S&P 500, which excludes the heaviest weights, hit record highs. All of this suggests that funds are flowing everywhere except into tech. That is a healthy sign of a rally broadening beyond a narrow group of AI leaders, the excessive concentration of which Bank of America has repeatedly warned about. If this rotation sticks, the market will become more resilient, supported by a wide range of companies rather than a few names.
Risks remain significant. The Bank for International Settlements, in its annual report on Sunday, named the main threats as a sharp correction to the AI rally, inflation, and fiscal stress. The Basel-based body warned that the global economy stands at the intersection of progress and danger, and its resilience is being tested more severely. Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin echoed that view, saying inflation is too high and continuing the hawkish tone voiced last week by Williams, Goolsbee, and Hsu.
The main event of the week will be the annual central bank forum in Sintra, featuring remarks by Kevin Warsh, as well as a block of US employment data, including non-farm payrolls. Markets will be watching for any signals on a September rate hike.
A technical picture for the S&P 500 suggests that the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome resistance at $7,381. That will show strength and open the way to $7,404. Controlling $7,427 will further cement the bulls' position. On the downside, in the event of slipping risk appetite, buyers must defend $7,355. A break there would quickly push the instrument back to $7,339 and open the road to $7,319.
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