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The EUR/USD currency pair attempted to initiate an upward movement on Monday but failed to overcome even the nearest resistance level of 1.1433. Overall, volatility was low on Monday, and there was no significant macroeconomic backdrop. The only event of the day was European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech, where she stated that the Eurozone economy had become more resilient to external shocks and that the ECB's decision to raise rates in June was absolutely correct and decisive. Lagarde indicated that recent events in the Middle East do not provide an opportunity to reconsider monetary policy evaluations, and the stability of peace between the US and Iran is in doubt. Thus, the ECB head made it clear that rates would likely need to continue to rise to curb inflation. Not surprisingly, the market did not react to Lagarde's hawkish statements. It is worth reminding that the ECB's decision to raise rates in June also went unnoticed. Thus, the market is selectively responding to news and remains inclined to buy the US currency for any reason, even without one.
Technically, the pair remains in a downward trend, but the euro has some chances to rise at least to the Senkou Span B line. Overall, the euro has been falling for two months, despite the formal conclusion of the conflict in the Middle East, the formal opening of the Strait of Hormuz, falling oil prices, and the ECB's tightening monetary policy. There is currently no trend line, and the long-term upward trend persists on higher timeframes.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, two excellent trading signals were formed. At the very start of the European trading session, the price bounced off the critical line, allowing long positions to be opened. During the American session, the level of 1.1433 was accurately reached, from which the price bounced, thus forming a sell signal. As of Tuesday morning, this trade is in profit of about 25 pips. Therefore, both trades were profitable.
The latest COT report is dated June 23. In the weekly timeframe, the net position of non-commercial traders remains bullish but has declined significantly due to geopolitical events. Traders have been unloading the euro in favor of the US dollar in recent months. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar has acted as a "reserve currency" for some time. However, this process may already be finished.
We still do not see any fundamental factors to strengthen the euro, while there are sufficient factors pointing to a decline in the US dollar. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily very attractive, but when this factor expires, everything will return to the way it was. The expiration may have already occurred. In the long term, the euro could fall to as low as 1.08$ (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. In recent months, the pair has not come particularly close to this line.
The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 19,300, while the number of shorts grew by 23,500. Accordingly, the net position fell by 4,200 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, a strong, unfounded downward trend continues to develop. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, but we do not believe the ongoing shelling between Iran and the US is sufficient reason for the dollar to strengthen significantly. The Federal Reserve has supported the US currency, but it is difficult to say why the decline continues. The market continues to buy dollars for no visible reason and ignores all factors in favor of the euro.
For June 30, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1433, 1.1536-1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1474) and Kijun-sen line (1.1381). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. Do not forget to set a stop-loss order to break even if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal proves false.
On Tuesday, reports on unemployment and changes in the number of unemployed are scheduled for release in Germany, along with inflation data. In the US, the JOLTs report on job openings will be released. Since the market continues to ignore all factors in favor of the euro, options for the pair's movement today are limited.
Today, traders may remain in short positions targeting 1.1362 after a bounce from the level of 1.1433. Long positions can be opened with targets at 1.1433 and the Senkou Span B line if the pair bounces today from the critical line.
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