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US equity indices closed higher yesterday. The S&P 500 rose 0.79%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.52%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.26%.
US markets finished the quarter on a strong note. The S&P 500 closed the quarter up 0.8%, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.7%, and both indexes posted their best quarterly returns since 2020. The chip sector was even more impressive: the Philadelphia Stock Exchange semiconductor index surged 3.9% and posted its best quarterly result on record.
The second quarter was marked by a striking rally in chipmakers, dollar strength that sent the yen to a 40-year low, and shifting geopolitical risks that reverberated through commodity markets. Tuesday's data is consistent with a picture of a gradually stabilizing labor market.
Job openings in May were almost unchanged, signaling persistent, if not rising, demand for workers. If job growth remains resilient in the second half, unemployment should fall, which would further support consumer sentiment. Consumer confidence is recovering slowly but steadily. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose 0.6 points in June to 91.2, although May's reading was revised down. That remains well below economists' forecast of 94.4, reflecting ongoing caution among US households. Falling gasoline prices helped offset some labor market concerns. That directly reflects the oil collapse after the Iran agreement. Cheaper fuel is gradually filtering into consumer sentiment, albeit more slowly than markets would prefer.
On the diplomatic front, tensions remain. Talks between the US and Iran will continue. Nevertheless, markets are calm. Isolated spikes in tension have caused only short-lived moves in energy markets, while investors price in a relatively orderly reopening of the strait and a gradual normalization of global oil flows.
Risks, however, remain. If sentiment toward risk deteriorates, markets could react quickly. The main event this week is the annual central bank forum in Sintra, featuring comments from Kevin Warsh, alongside a block of US employment data, including non-farm payrolls. Markets will be watching closely for any signals on a September rate hike.
A technical picture for the S&P 500 suggests that the immediate task for buyers today is to clear resistance at $7,474. That would demonstrate strength and open a path to $7,494. Holding $7,518 would further cement the bulls' position. On the downside, buyers must defend $7,451; a break there would quickly push the instrument back to $7,427 and open the way to $7,404.
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