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Gold surged after disappointing US nonfarm payrolls, which weakened fears of a Fed rate hike this year. The metal spiked intraday by 2.8% and extended a two-day recovery from a nearly seven-month low. By the New York close, spot gold was up 2.1% at $4,113 an ounce. The rally is monetary in nature: a sharp slowdown in hiring fundamentally changes market expectations about the rate path, to which the metal is most sensitive.
The reversal is straightforward and follows gold's usual logic. A weak labor market reduces pressure on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to raise interest rates at the July meeting. June nonfarm payrolls missed almost all forecasts, sharply weakening the hawkish scenario. Since high interest rates are the main headwind for a non-yielding metal, any easing of tightening expectations automatically restores gold's appeal. That is what happened.
The further direction for the metal will depend on whether incoming economic data continue to support arguments for lower rates. In other words, for a sustainable rally, gold needs further confirmation that the economy is cooling and the Fed is easing.
Warsh's rhetoric also deserves attention and helped set the stage for the rally. Although the new chair refuses to give direct policy signals, his comments at the ECB forum in Sintra on Wednesday — that inflation risks have declined — were interpreted as less hawkish than expected. This shift in tone, combined with the weak jobs report, created ideal conditions for gold's bounce.
During today's Asian session, gold touched $4,190. Silver rose 2.5% to $60.63, while platinum and palladium also gained.
On the technical side, buyers need to clear the near resistance at $4,186 to target $4,249; breaking above that level would be challenging. The farther target is the $4,304 area. On a downside move, bears will try to take control of $4,124; if they succeed, a breakdown of the range would deal a serious blow to bulls and push gold toward the $4,062 low with a prospect of reaching $4,008.
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