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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded once again from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3382 on Friday and declined toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3335. Today, a rebound from this level would favor the British pound and support renewed growth toward 1.3382 and 1.3457. Consolidation below the 1.3335 level would increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward 1.3298 and 1.3268.
The wave structure turned bullish last week. The most recently completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave surpassed the previous peak and continues to develop. Thus, the bulls have finally taken the initiative, although I had expected this to happen about two to three weeks earlier. It is now important for them to maintain their momentum. The pound has been rising fairly quickly, but further bullish advances require supportive news flow.
There was no significant news background on Friday. Today, the U.S. ISM Services PMI will be released, and it is unlikely to go unnoticed by traders. Therefore, I expect the pair's main movements during the second half of the day. However, the first half of the day also promises to be fairly active. From the very beginning of the week, the bears have launched a new attack, which may develop into a corrective pullback against the two-week rally. At this stage, I see no strong reasons for either a significant appreciation of the pound or a strong advance of the U.S. dollar this week. Among the key events, only the already mentioned ISM index and the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting, due on Wednesday evening, deserve attention. Unfortunately, the Fed releases its meeting minutes several weeks after each meeting, so this information can already be considered outdated. Overall, all signs point to a quiet week without any major price movements.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3159, reversed in favor of the pound, and advanced toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3348. Consolidation above the 1.3348 level would allow traders to expect further growth toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 50.0% at 1.3409. A rebound from the 1.3409 level would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a moderate decline toward 1.3277. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
Sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became more bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculative traders decreased by 1,271, while the number of short positions increased by 32,863. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 41,000 versus 147,000. Bears have dominated the market in recent months. However, while this dominance previously raised a few questions, it has become less straightforward now, as the fundamental backdrop has changed significantly. The bears' advantage is now more than threefold.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound. However, in the near term, everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but rather on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States may prove lengthy and difficult. There is also no guarantee that they will end with the signing of a nuclear agreement.
The economic calendar for July 6 contains only one scheduled event. The economic backdrop is expected to influence market sentiment during the second half of Monday.
Short positions were possible after a rebound from the 1.3382 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3335 and 1.3298. The first target has already been reached. Long positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.3335 level, with targets at 1.3382 and 1.3457.
Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3457–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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