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Due to low market volatility, the price did not reach the key levels I identified during the first half of the day.
The euro showed little reaction to the news that Germany's industrial production continued to expand. According to preliminary data from Destatis, industrial production increased by 0.9% in May compared with April. Although this modest increase is a positive signal, it was not enough to reverse the broader trend seen in recent months. The industrial sector of Europe's largest economy continues to face pressure from several factors, including high inflation, ongoing supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Next on the agenda are the release of the U.S. trade balance and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. The trade balance measures the difference between exports and imports. Although a persistent trade deficit can theoretically put pressure on a currency, markets typically factor in such data ahead of time, which limits the immediate impact on exchange rates. The TIPP Index reflects consumers' expectations regarding the economy and their personal finances, but its impact on market prices is generally limited, as traders view it more as a supplementary indicator than an independent market-moving catalyst. Under these conditions, the euro lacks a clear driver from the U.S. side, and the EUR/USD pair is likely to remain influenced primarily by prevailing market sentiment and the technical picture.
As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, consider buying the euro if the price reaches 1.1436 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1460. At 1.1460, I plan to exit long positions and also consider opening short positions, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A stronger euro today can be expected only if U.S. economic data comes in weaker than forecast.
Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1425 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a rise toward 1.1436 and 1.1460 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1425 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1405, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions, targeting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if the U.S. data proves strong.
Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1436 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. A decline toward 1.1425 and 1.1405 can then be expected.
Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with great caution. It is generally best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not follow proper money management principles and trade with excessively large position sizes.
Finally, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaForex lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaForex, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
