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The test of the 162.02 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.
With strong pressure on the yen, traders will focus on the U.S. trade balance and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index as potential catalysts that could support further growth in USD/JPY. A strong U.S. trade balance reading could influence the dollar exchange rate. The TIPP Index is less significant than the key consumer confidence indicators, so the market views it as a secondary indicator.
Under these conditions, the Japanese yen will primarily follow the dynamics of U.S. Treasury yields rather than the economic releases themselves. If the dollar receives only a limited response from the market, the USD/JPY pair is likely to remain within a narrow range. Particular attention should also be paid to the risk of currency intervention by the Bank of Japan. Recently, the regulator has actively responded to sharp yen depreciation; however, with a neutral market background and no strong pressure on the pair, the likelihood of intervention remains low.
As for my intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches the entry point around 162.02 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 162.52 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 162.52, I plan to close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from that level. A rise in the pair today is possible, but the upward potential remains rather limited.
Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 161.81 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 162.02 and 162.52 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 161.81 (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 161.29, where I plan to close short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point move from that level. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if the central bank intervenes.
Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 162.02 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 161.81 and 161.29 can be expected.
Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market in order to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not follow proper money management principles and trade with excessively large positions.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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