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The test of the 1.1412 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving below the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by approximately 12 points.
A fresh wave of geopolitical tensions has restored support for the U.S. dollar and once again put pressure on the euro. Donald Trump indicated that the ceasefire with Iran is no longer in effect and, in his view, has effectively collapsed. He also stated that he sees no point in continuing negotiations with Tehran. The market interpreted these remarks as a signal of renewed confrontation, immediately boosting demand for safe-haven assets and strengthening the U.S. dollar.
The key event of the second half of the day will be the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting, while the Wholesale Inventories report and U.S. Consumer Credit data will provide additional market context. Changes in wholesale inventories serve as an indirect indicator of demand, as rising inventories may reflect either business optimism or slowing sales. Consumer Credit data, meanwhile, reflects consumers' willingness to increase borrowing and their confidence in future income. However, both releases rarely trigger a significant market reaction, so traders are expected to focus primarily on the FOMC meeting minutes.
It is worth recalling that in June, under the leadership of new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting while delivering a noticeably more hawkish message. Updated projections also shifted toward the possibility of future rate increases. Given the renewed tensions in the Middle East, market participants will closely examine the meeting minutes for clues about how realistic the prospect of another interest rate hike has become. For the euro, this represents a direct downside risk, as any confirmation of a hawkish bias would strengthen the U.S. dollar and weigh on EUR/USD.
As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Today, buying the euro may be considered if the price reaches 1.1415 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1450. At 1.1450, I plan to exit long positions and consider opening short positions in anticipation of a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction. A stronger euro today should be expected only if U.S. economic data comes in weaker than expected.
Important: Before opening a long position, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun moving higher.
I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1397 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In that case, a move toward 1.1415 and 1.1450 can be expected.
I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1397 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1367, where I intend to close short positions and immediately consider opening long positions, anticipating a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if the U.S. data is strong.
Important: Before opening a short position, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving lower.
I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1415 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.1397 and 1.1367 can be expected.
Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making trading decisions. It is generally advisable to stay out of the market before the release of major economic reports in order to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly result in the loss of your entire deposit, especially if you trade large position sizes without applying proper risk management.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market movements is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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