Permanecer 
Condiciones de negociación
Products
Herramientas
The EUR/USD pair remains within the framework of a local "bearish" impulse, but over the past week and a half, bulls have gained some opportunities. Last week, an international economic forum was held in Portugal, during which Kevin Warsh confirmed the need to achieve lower inflation, but at the same time did not say whether the Fed intends to achieve this goal through monetary policy tightening or whether it will rely on inflation declining amid falling energy prices. Since the market did not receive a direct answer, it will have to focus on inflation indicators. The latest US labor market data showed that inflation is not the only factor that deserves attention. Job creation remains rather weak. Over the past three months, the number of jobs created was approximately 100 thousand below traders' expectations. Therefore, a slowdown in the US labor market may force the FOMC to assess a monetary policy tightening decision much more carefully. The next inflation report will answer the question of whether traders should actually expect the monetary policy tightening that most market participants are currently anticipating.
Over the past week and a half, the European currency has managed to show only a slight increase. This bullish attack was enough to invalidate imbalance 18, allowing traders to target imbalance 17. As long as imbalance 17 remains valid, the bearish impulse remains in place. Although I would prefer to see a new bullish impulse. In any case, bulls have received a certain opportunity. Will they be able to take advantage of it?
Geopolitics has moved into the background in recent weeks due to the Fed factor. Tehran and Washington once again violated the terms of the ceasefire and the agreement reached on June 17, but this fact no longer surprised traders at all. Donald Trump issued an order canceling permission for Iranian oil exports, but this also failed to significantly disappoint market participants. The market did not react to the end of the conflict, so it should not react to its resumption either. We did not see the "promised" dollar decline amid reduced geopolitical tensions, nor did we see the euro rise due to ECB monetary policy tightening. Bears continued their attacks despite the informational and geopolitical background. Now geopolitics is once again causing disappointment, giving bears formal reasons for new attacks. However, in my view, traders are already pricing in events for the third time that have either not happened yet or are simply repeating the same developments.
The current chart structure indicates that the bearish impulse, which began on April 17, remains intact. Bearish imbalance 17 has not been filled, while imbalance 18 was invalidated due to weak US labor market statistics. No bullish patterns have been formed, and they are unlikely to appear in the coming days. Therefore, bulls may continue their corrective growth toward imbalance 17, but there is currently no clear basis for trading this movement. I would also note that during the past week, liquidity was taken from the low of August 1 last year (the red line on the chart). This signal is currently the only support factor for bulls.
The economic background was practically absent on Wednesday. The FOMC minutes will be released in the evening, but I do not believe the market will pay much attention to them. All details of the latest Fed meeting have been known for a long time, and the minutes are unlikely to surprise traders in any way.
The number of reasons for bulls to attack in 2026 remains extremely high, and even the war in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policy, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, has not changed. At the moment, I do not see serious support factors for the US currency despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. The EUR/USD pair has approached a whole series of lows and swings from which liquidity may be taken, potentially providing a signal for a reversal of the bearish impulse.
Economic calendar for the United States and the European Union:
The economic calendar for July 9 contains three releases, none of which can be considered important. The influence of the economic background on market sentiment on Thursday will once again be extremely weak or absent.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
In my opinion, the pair remains at the stage of forming a bullish trend. The fundamental background sharply shifted in favor of bears four months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or completed. Therefore, bulls may well begin a new advance after liquidity is taken from clearly defined lows. However, opening buy positions at the moment is not advisable. First, bullish patterns need to form.
At present, traders have two bearish imbalances at their disposal, one of which has already been invalidated. However, I would like to draw attention to the proximity of four significant swings from which liquidity may be taken, as well as the questionable background behind the US dollar's growth. Therefore, I am expecting a bullish advance, but it is important to receive at least some chart-based confirmation of this hypothesis. Alternatively, traders should wait for a sell signal to form within imbalance 17.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaForex lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaForex, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
