10.07.202610:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD Price Analysis and Forecast: Gold Remains Supported

On Friday, gold (XAU/USD) is once again attempting to break above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) during the early European session, consolidating near a two-day high.

The US dollar has now weakened for a third consecutive session following the release of the more dovish FOMC minutes, providing partial support for gold prices. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in 2026 remain in place. In addition, persistent geopolitical tensions continue to limit the dollar's downside, warranting caution before opening positions in anticipation of a continued recovery from Wednesday's weekly low.

The minutes of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, published on Wednesday, revealed differing views among Committee members regarding the future path of interest rates. The document noted that many participants preferred to keep the federal funds target range unchanged or reduce it slightly by the end of this year. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials emphasized that further monetary policy tightening may still be necessary due to persistently elevated inflation risks. In addition, the CME FedWatch Tool continues to price in nearly an 85% probability of at least one Fed rate hike by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, renewed escalation between the United States and Iran has once again shifted attention to the oil market and its potential impact on inflation and global interest rates. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported airstrikes on 90 Iranian military targets, including air defense systems, missile positions, and naval logistics infrastructure along Iran's coastline. Tehran responded by launching missiles and drones at US facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, warning of a broader regional response should the attacks continue. Nevertheless, market anxiety eased somewhat after Donald Trump stated that Iran had reportedly contacted the United States to negotiate an agreement, while the White House also reaffirmed its commitment to the relevant memorandum of understanding.

Overall, the mixed fundamental backdrop continues to keep investors cautious and suggests that gold requires stronger buying interest to confirm the formation of a short-term bottom. At the same time, XAU/USD remains near its nearest three-day resistance level, posting moderate weekly losses while trading below the 200-day SMA. This continues to support a bearish short-term bias despite improving momentum.

From a technical perspective, the nearest resistance remains the 20-day SMA, currently around $4,136, followed by the $4,145 level. A sustained break above this zone would open the way toward the weekly high in the $4,200–4,216 level.

At the same time, momentum oscillators remain in negative territory, confirming that sellers continue to hold the advantage. Initial support is provided by the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,050, followed by the $4,000 psychological level. Failure to hold these supports would expose the June low.