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The US dollar continues to lose ground, while the euro, pound, and other risk assets are quickly taking advantage of this.
The reduction of tensions in the Middle East yesterday restored market risk appetite, and traders have once again flocked to more lucrative assets. As the threat of escalation subsided, demand for the safe-haven dollar weakened, and capital flowed into instruments sensitive to global sentiment. Additionally, weak US housing sales data released the day before put further pressure on the US dollar, indicating cooling demand in a rates-sensitive sector due to high mortgage rates.
The dollar was also unable to find support in the speech by Federal Reserve representative John Williams, who expressed concerns about accelerating inflation due to the rapid growth of the artificial intelligence sector. Despite the overall alarming tone of these remarks, the prevailing risk sentiment and disappointing reports proved stronger. For the euro, the prevailing situation has been a tailwind, and the weakening dollar allowed EUR/USD to gain. The pound also moved in tandem, bolstered by the overall retreat of the US dollar and a return of risk appetite, which helped strengthen its position against the dollar.
Today, the first half of the day promises to be rich in Eurozone reports, starting with the consumer price indices from Germany and France. This data will show how inflation behaves in the bloc's two largest economies, which is important for the euro, as it directly affects expectations for European Central Bank policy. Higher figures strengthen arguments for a hawkish stance from the central bank and support the single currency, while slowing inflation can weaken its position. The morning's agenda will also include data on Italy's industrial production and the meeting of the Eurozone finance ministers, from which the market will look for signals on the consistency of fiscal policy.
To maintain upward momentum at the end of the week, the euro will need a truly strong set of indicators. Only good data on inflation and production will give the single currency reasons to continue rising; otherwise, it risks losing the gains it has made and shifting into a correction.
On the other hand, the UK calendar is once again empty today, and the lack of domestic reports is an important factor for the pound. When there is no domestic data, the national currency loses its independent drivers and begins to move along with the external backdrop, primarily the dynamics of the dollar and the overall appetite for risk. Under such conditions, the existing demand for GBP/USD may persist, as the pair is more likely to hold its gains in the absence of negative domestic news.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is best to proceed using the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.
Buying on a breakout of 1.1459 may lead to the euro rising to around 1.1479 and 1.1501;
Selling on a breakout of 1.1432 may lead to the euro falling to around 1.1414 and 1.1393;
Buying on a breakout of 1.3448 may lead to the pound rising to around 1.3481 and 1.3509;
Selling on a breakout of 1.3408 may lead to the pound falling to around 1.3380 and 1.3356;
Buying on a breakout of 161.62 may lead to the dollar rising to around 161.83 and 162.08;
Selling on a breakout of 161.35 may lead to the dollar being sold off to around 161.10 and 160.90;
Looking for short positions after an unsuccessful breakout beyond 1.1456, returning below this level;
Looking for long positions after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1425, returning to this level;
Looking for shorts after an unsuccessful breakout beyond 1.3441, returning below this level;
Looking for longs after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3405, returning to this level;
Looking for shorts after an unsuccessful breakout beyond 0.6965, returning below this level;
Looking for longs after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6938, returning to thi
Looking for shorts after an unsuccessful breakout beyond 1.4175, returning below this level;
Looking for longs after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.4145, returning to this level;
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