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The price test at 1.3418 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. However, the pair did not rise, resulting in a loss realization.
Today, the new escalation of conflict in the Middle East has weakened risk appetite and strengthened the dollar, which has naturally weakened the pound. The U.S. Central Command reported the fourth strike against Iran in a week, aimed at undermining Tehran's ability to attack vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Dozens of targets were hit, including air defense systems, coastal radar stations, and drone complexes. The contradictory statements from the parties regarding the status of the strait have added to market anxiety. The vulnerability of this oil route has once again caused traders to return to the dollar.
The absence of significant macroeconomic data for the UK today further exacerbates the decline of the British pound. In the absence of encouraging economic data that could support the national currency, traders tend to respond to negative external factors. The tension in the Middle East will undoubtedly spur a flight to quality, which usually means a weakening of currencies considered riskier, such as the pound.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at an entry point around 1.3387 (green line on the chart), with a growth target to 1.3416 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3416, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). We can expect growth in the pound today only if the situation in the Middle East stabilizes. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3371 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3387 and 1.3416.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3371 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3346, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Bad news will put pressure back on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3387 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3371 and 1.3346.
Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaForex lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaForex, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
